Aquatic Salinization and Mangrove Species in a Changing Climate
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper contributes to understanding
the physical and economic effects of salinity diffusion and
planning for appropriate adaptation for managing the
Sundarbans in a changing climate, with a focus on the West
Bengal portion of the tidal-wetland forest delta. A
five-step analysis, using high-resolution spatial
assessments, was conducted to get a broader picture of the
migration of mangrove species with progressive aquatic
salinization in a changing climate. A current (2015)
basemap, with overlays of salinity tolerance for various
mangrove species, and projected location-specific aquatic
salinity for 2050 were used to predict the impacts of
salinization on mangrove species by 2050. The results
indicate patterns of gains and losses, with dominance of
salt-tolerant species at the expense of freshwater species.
Overall, the impact of salinity-induced mangrove migration
will have an adverse effect on the flow of ecosystem
services, ultimately impacting the livelihood options of
poor households. Resources should be directed to developing
alternative livelihoods for mangrove-dependent households.
In addition, efforts are needed to develop sustainable
policies that incorporate rising salinity, changes in
mangrove dynamics, and the welfare impacts on poor communities.
Palabras clave
MANGROVE, CLIMATE CHANGE, SALINATION, SUNDARBANS, TIDAL WETLAND, WELFARE DYNAMICS, POVERTY