Effects of Population Density on Smallholder Agricultural Production and Commercialization in Rural Kenya
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This study analyzes the implications of increasing population density in Kenya’s rural
areas on smallholder production and commercialization. Using data from five panel
surveys on 1,146 small-scale farms over the 1997-2010 period, we use econometric
techniques to determine how increasing rural population density is affecting farm
household behavior and its implication to smallholder commercialization. We find that
farm productivity and incomes tend to rise with population density up to 600-650 persons
per km2; beyond this threshold, rising population density is associated with sharp declines
in farm productivity. Currently 14% of Kenya’s rural population resides in areas exceeding
this population density. The study concludes by exploring the nature of institutional and
policy reforms needed to address these development problems.