Trend analysis of the climate database used in agricultural climate risk zoning.

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dc.contributorFABIANI DENISE BENDER; JOSE EDUARDO BOFFINO DE ALMEIDA MONTEIRO, CNPTIA; DANIEL DE CASTRO VICTORIA, CNPTIA; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, PR; ALAN MASSARU NAKAI, CNPTIA; RENATO JOSE SANTOS MACIEL, CNPTIA.
dc.creatorBENDER, F. D.
dc.creatorMONTEIRO, J. E. B. de A.
dc.creatorVICTORIA, D. de C.
dc.creatorCUADRA, S. V.
dc.creatorOLIVEIRA, A. F. de
dc.creatorNAKAI, A. M.
dc.creatorMACIEL, R. J. S.
dc.date2025-11-06T13:49:06Z
dc.date2025-11-06T13:49:06Z
dc.date2025-11-06
dc.date2025
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T04:18:25Z
dc.descriptionAbstract – The objective of this work was to identify trends in the series of historical rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration, considering the meteorological database used in studies on agricultural climate risk zoning (ZARC). The daily meteorological databases used in ZARC were compiled from about 4,000 station points over a continuous period from 1984 to 2022. The trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall’s test and Sen’s slope estimator for the entire Brazilian territory. The results highlighted the emergence of marked spatial and temporal climate trends in Brazil, with a potential impact on agricultural risks. Although more than 79% sites have shown no significant rainfall trends, a decreasing pattern was observed mainly at the beginning of the rainy season in August-September over the central region of Brazil, as well as a decrease in rainfall in April and an increase in October, in the South of the coutry. This decline in the central region coincides with a significant rise of minimum/maximum temperatures and evapotranspiration, leading to an extension of the dry season. The spatialtemporal change in rainfall associated with an annual increase in temperature (5%) and evapotranspiration (10%), could significantly affect agricultural production across many grain-producing regions in Brazil, particularly in areas where more than one crop is grown per season.
dc.identifierPesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, v. 60, e04111, 2025.
dc.identifier1678-3921
dc.identifierhttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1181207
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1590/ S1678-3921.pab2025.v60.04111
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/457233
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectVariáveis climáticas
dc.subjectSérie histórica
dc.subjectTeste de Mann-Kendall
dc.subjectEstimador de declive de Sen
dc.subjectZoneamento de risco climático agrícola
dc.subjectZARC
dc.subjectBanco de dados climáticos
dc.subjectClimate variables
dc.subjectHistorical series
dc.subjectMann-Kendall’s test
dc.subjectSen’s slope estimator
dc.titleTrend analysis of the climate database used in agricultural climate risk zoning.
dc.typeArtigo de periódico

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