Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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By the widely used
difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty
Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of
people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a
day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right,
or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find
that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of
outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching
method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty
lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than
consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it
hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income,
so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain.
Palabras clave
SOCIAL IMPACT, SOCIAL ANALYSIS, IMPACT EVALUATION, ANTI-POVERTY POLICY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, INCOME GENERATION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ABSOLUTE DECLINE, ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE, ABSOLUTE POVERTY, AGGREGATE INCOME, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS, AVERAGE ANNUAL, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, AVERAGE RATE, BANK LENDING, BENCHMARK, BENEFICIARIES, BENEFICIARY PARTICIPATION, CAPACITY BUILDING, CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS, COMPARISON GROUPS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CREDIT MARKET, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, CUMULATIVE INCOME, DATA COLLECTION, DATA SET, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT, DOWNWARD BIAS, EMPIRICAL FINDINGS, EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EMPLOYMENT, EVALUATION DESIGN, EVALUATION METHODS, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPENDITURES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, FORESTRY, GROWTH MODEL, GROWTH PROSPECTS, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, IMPACT EVALUATION, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DECLINE, INCOME GAINS, INCOME IMPACTS, INCOME SHOCKS, INCOME SOURCES, INCOMES, INEQUALITY, INSURANCE, INTERVENTION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL AUTHORITIES, LOW INCOME, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARGINAL UTILITY, MATCHING METHODS, MEAN CONSUMPTION, MEAN DIFFERENCES, MEAN INCOME, MEAN INCOMES, MEASUREMENT ERROR, 0 HYPOTHESIS, PERMANENT INCOME, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR AREAS, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR PEOPLE, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY IMPACTS, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, POWER PARITY, PROGRAM EFFECTS, PROGRAMS, PUBLIC CAPITAL, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, REGIONAL GROWTH, SAMPLE SIZE, SAVINGS, SELECTION BIAS, TARGETING, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSFER PAYMENTS, WEALTH, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, ABSOLUTE DECLINE