Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook

World Bank

Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

Economic growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014. The slowdown is the result of a number of factors such as slackening foreign direct investment (FDI), dependence on a limited number of commodity exports, and a difficult external economic environment. Consumer lending and remittances continued to support private consumption, but under-execution of government spending suppressed aggregate demand. On the supply side, the mining and energy sectors performed particularly badly, offsetting positive developments in manufacturing. Year-on-year inflation reached close to zero in August 2014, following a long decline since energy price increases caused it to flare up in July 2013. Twelve-month inflation slowed to 0.8 percent in August, well below the central bank s 2.5 5.5 percent target range. The decline came despite new electricity price increases in the same month. On the whole, second-round price pressures were minimal. Core inflation, excluding prices for food and fuel, was being held below headline inflation in the second half of the year.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATION OF RESERVES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, BASIS POINT, BASIS POINTS, BENEFICIARIES, BONDS, BROKERAGE, BUFFERS, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL DEPOSITORY, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANK LOAN, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION BASKETS, CONSUMPTION GOODS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONSUMPTION SPENDING, CORE INFLATION, CPI, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT RATING, CURRENCY, CURRENCY MISMATCHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CUSTOMS UNION, DEBT HOLDINGS, DEBT SERVICE, DEFICIT FINANCING, DEFLATION, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISBURSEMENTS, DOMESTIC CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC INVESTORS, DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, ELASTICITY, EQUITY ISSUANCE, EUROBOND, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORTERS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL EFFORTS, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED INVESTMENTS, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS, FUTURES, FUTURES MARKETS, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL INTEREST, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNMENT DEFICIT, GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES, GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GRACE PERIOD, GRADUAL DEPRECIATION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATES, HOLDING, HOLDINGS, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT, IMPORT COSTS, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT TARIFF, IMPORT TARIFFS, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME TAX, INFLATION, INFLATION TARGETING, INFLATION TARGETING REGIME, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT BANK, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, JUSTICE SYSTEMS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LIBERALIZATION, LOAN PORTFOLIOS, LONG-TERM LOANS, LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC RISK, MARKET EFFICIENCIES, MARKET EFFICIENCY, METALS, MINERAL PRICES, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, NATURAL RESOURCES, NET IMPORTS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NOMINAL WAGES, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL, OIL PRICES, OPEN MARKET, OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS, OUTPUT GAP, PENSION, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSIONS, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE DYNAMICS, PRICE HIKE, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEXES, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE DEBT, PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY, PROFIT MARGIN, PUBLIC DEBT, REAL EXPORT, REAL EXPORT GROWTH, REAL GDP, REAL IMPORT, RECESSION, REGISTRATION FEES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, REPAYMENT, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURNS, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, SHORTFALL, SLOWDOWN, SLOWDOWNS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TARGET RANGE, TARIFF INCREASE, TARIFF INCREASES, TARIFF POLICY, TAX CREDITS, TAX EXEMPTIONS, TAX INCREASE, TAX RATE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE IMPACT, TRADE PATTERNS, TRADE POLICY, TRADE RESTRICTIVENESS, TRADE SHOCK, TRADING, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANCHE, TRANSPARENCY, TREASURY, TREASURY BILL, TREASURY BILL RATE, TREATY, TURNOVER, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WEIGHTS, WORKING CAPITAL, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO