When Does Rigorous Impact Evaluation Make a Difference? The Case of the Millennium Villages
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When is the rigorous impact evaluation
of development projects a luxury, and when a necessity? This
Paper studies one high-profile case: the Millennium Villages
Project (MVP), an experimental and intensive package
intervention to spark sustained local economic development
in rural Africa. it illustrates the benefits of rigorous
impact evaluation in this setting by showing that estimates
of the project's effects depend heavily on the
evaluation method. Comparing trends at the MVP intervention
sites in Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria to trends in the
surrounding areas yields much more modest estimates of the
project's effects than the before-versus-after
comparisons published thus far by the MVP. Neither approach
constitutes a rigorous impact evaluation of the MVP, which
is impossible to perform due to weaknesses in the evaluation
design of the project's initial phase. These weaknesses
include the subjective choice of intervention sites, the
subjective choice of comparison sites, the lack of baseline
data on comparison sites, the small sample size, and the
short time horizon. The authors describe how the next wave
of the intervention could be designed to allow proper
evaluation of the MVP's impact at little additional cost.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY, BASELINE SURVEYS, BULLETIN, CENSUSES, CHILD HEALTH, CHILD MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY RATE, CHILD MORTALITY RATES, CHILD SURVIVAL, CHRONIC MALNUTRITION, CLINICS, COMMUNITIES, COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT, COMMUNITY HEALTH, CORRELATIONS, CORRUPTION, COUNTERFACTUAL, DATA COLLECTION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS, DEVELOPMENT PLANS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICIES, EPIDEMIC, EVALUATION METHODS, EVALUATION RESULTS, EXPERIMENTS, FIELD EXPERIMENTS, GENDER, GENDER EQUALITY, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL POVERTY, HEALTH INTERVENTIONS, HIV, HOSPITAL, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT EVALUATION, IMPORTANT POLICY, INCOME, INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS, INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT, INTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, INTERVENTION, INTERVENTIONS, IRD, LEARNING, LIVE BIRTHS, LIVELIHOOD, LIVING CONDITIONS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL ECONOMY, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE, MALARIA, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MEASLES, MEASLES IMMUNIZATION, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MODERNIZATION, MONITORING TEAMS, NATIONAL GOVERNMENT, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATIONAL PLANS, NATIONAL POLICY, NATIONAL POPULATION, NATURAL RESOURCE, NEWBORNS, NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, NURSE, NUTRITION, ORAL REHYDRATION SOLUTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, PILOT PROJECTS, PLAN OF ACTION, POLICY PROCESS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRACTITIONERS, PREGNANT WOMEN, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PROGRAM EFFECTS, PROGRAMS, PROGRESS, PROJECT EVALUATION, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC SERVICE, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS, REGIONAL POPULATION, REMITTANCE, RESEARCH DESIGN, RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS, RESEARCHERS, RESETTLEMENT, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, RURAL AREA, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POPULATION, RURAL POVERTY, SAMPLE SIZE, SANITATION, SANITATION FACILITIES, SCARCE RESOURCES, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCIENCES, SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEMS, SKILLED BIRTH ATTENDANCE, SKILLED PERSONNEL, SPILLOVER, SURVEY DATA, SURVIVAL RATE, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORTATION, VALIDITY, VILLAGES