African swine fever: The medium-term effects on agricultural markets
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This paper aims to gauge the complex cross-commodity and cross-country effects of the African swine fever (ASF) over the medium-term, that is, within a ten-year time horizon. While focusing on meat and feed markets, it also assesses the effects of ASF on all agricultural markets. The results are based on a number of counterfactual runs undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model, a global partial equilibrium framework jointly maintained by the secretariats of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The results will help decision makers to understand the extent to which ASF is likely to affect the various agricultural markets and help them prepare for the challenges and the opportunities that may arise from a further spread of the disease.