Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices
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Global food prices have increased
substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many
developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty
impact of the price changes between June and December 2010
in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is
done by gathering detailed information on individual
households' food production and consumption levels for
thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the
impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this
sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people
globally, but with considerably different impacts in
different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is
partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of
global prices to local prices and partly to differences in
households' patterns of production and consumption. On
balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs
the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the
number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that
the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low
income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income
countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling
below the $1.25 per day extreme poverty line.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE IMPACTS, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURE, BANANAS, BEEF, BEETS, BEVERAGES, CALORIE INTAKE, CASH CROPS, CASH TRANSFERS, CASSAVA, CHANGES IN POVERTY, COCOA, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION BASKET, COOKING, DAIRY, DECOMPOSABLE POVERTY, DEFINITIONS OF POVERTY, DIETARY DIVERSITY, DIVERSIFICATION, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDIBLE OILS, EGGS, ENERGY PRICES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, FOOD BUYERS, FOOD COMMODITIES, FOOD CONSUMERS, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SALES, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD STOCKS, FOOD SUPPLY, FRUITS, GLOBAL POVERTY, GRAINS, GROUNDNUT, GROUNDNUT OIL, GROUNDNUTS, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, LIVING STANDARDS, MAIZE, MALNUTRITION, MEAT, MILK, MUTTON, OILS AND FATS, ORANGES, PALM OIL, PEANUTS, POOR, POOR CONSUMERS, POOR FARMERS, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POOR PRODUCERS, PORK, POTATOES, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY GAP INDEX, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY POVERTY CHANGE, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE VOLATILITY, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, RICE, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL POOR, RURAL WELFARE, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SOYBEAN, SOYBEANS, SUBSTITUTE, SUBSTITUTES, SUGAR, SUGAR CANE, TARGETING, TEA, TOTAL POVERTY, VEGETABLES, WAGE RATES, WHEAT, WORLD MARKETS