Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, April 2012
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Washington, DC
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Political uncertainties in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA) continue to affect the short
term economic prospects in the region, while major
developments in the global economy over the past six months
have put the region on a two-track growth path for 2012.
These developments include a significant rise in crude oil
prices on fears of oil supply disruptions and weak economic
activity in the Eurozone. Economic growth of MENA's oil
exporting countries will be strong as it rebounds from the
average of 3.4 percent in 2011 to 5.4 percent in 2012.
Overall growth in the region is expected to be 4.8 percent
in 2012, surpassing the 3 percent growth achieved in 2011.
Improvement in the growth prospects of oil exporters is due
to strength in oil markets. The fiscal situation is expected
to remain tenuous for oil importing countries, especially
those going through transitions. Overall, inflation is
expected to remain subdued in 2012, with the notable
exceptions of Iran and Egypt. Subsidies are currently
dampening currently dampening the effects of increased
global food and energy prices in many MENA countries.
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ACCOUNTING, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE INVESTMENT, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AGGREGATE UNEMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, APPROACH, ASSETS, AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT, BALANCE, BARRELS PER DAY, BORROWING, BOTTOM QUARTILE, BUDGET DEFICIT, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, CREATIVE DESTRUCTION, CRISES, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL PRICE, CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES, CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS, DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT, DEMOCRACY, DEREGULATION, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DIESEL, DOMESTIC CONDITIONS, DOMESTIC CURRENCIES, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS, DOMESTIC PRICES, DOUBLE DIVIDEND, DOWNSIDE RISKS, DRIVERS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC REGULATION, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, ECONOMIC STABILITY, ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRICITY TARIFFS, EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENERGY COSTS, ENERGY PRICES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLE, EXTERNAL FACTORS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FEMALE LABOR, FEMALE LABOR FORCE, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL OPENNESS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN RESERVES, FREE TRADE, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATES, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, IMPORT, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME EARNING, INDEBTEDNESS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT INFLOWS, JOB CREATION, JOB SEEKERS, JOBS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET ISSUES, LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR ORGANIZATION, LABOR REGULATION, LABOR REGULATIONS, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LNG, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MINIMUM WAGE, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT, NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, NATURAL GAS, NET OIL, NUCLEAR ENERGY, OIL, OIL COMPANIES, OIL DEMAND, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL EXPORTS, OIL IMPORTERS, OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL MARKET, OIL MARKETS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICE SPIKE, OIL PRICES, OIL PRODUCTION, OIL REVENUES, OIL SHOCKS, OIL SUPPLIES, OIL SUPPLY, OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES, OUTPUT GAPS, PERSISTENT HIGH INFLATION, PETROLEUM, PETROLEUM PRICE, PETROLEUM PRICES, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL TURMOIL, POWER, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE HIKE, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE RIGIDITIES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTION DISRUPTIONS, PRODUCTIVE FIRMS, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, RECYCLING, REGIONAL CRISES, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, REGULATORY REFORMS, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, ROBUSTNESS CHECKS, SEVERANCE PAY, SHORTFALL, SHORTFALLS, SLOW GROWTH, SOCIAL BENEFITS, SOCIAL INSTABILITY, SPARE CAPACITY, STANDARD DEVIATION, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUPPLY DISRUPTION, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUSES, TURBULENCE, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, UNEMPLOYMENT DECLINES, UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS, UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNEMPLOYMENT REDUCTION, UNEMPLOYMENT SPELLS, UPWARD PRESSURE, VALUE INDEX, VOLATILE INTERNATIONAL, WAGES, WORKERS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD PRICES, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT