South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery
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Washington, DC
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This report covers economic
developments, prospects, and policies in six South Eastern
European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. South East
Europe (SEE6)'s economy recovered from the 2012
recession, growing by 2.2 percent on average in 2013. Each
of the SEE6 countries marked positive growth rates in 2013,
with growth at or exceeding 3 percent in Kosovo, FYR
Macedonia and Montenegro. External demand for SEE6 exports,
especially by the European Union (EU), was the key driver of
the recovery. On the production side, SEE6 drivers of growth
were mixed, but in all countries a good agricultural year
supported economic activity. An export-led recovery combined
with depressed domestic demand resulted in a significant
narrowing of current account imbalances in all SEE6
countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio
investment financed most of the current account deficits in
SEE6. Overall, SEE6 countries are having limited success in
translating the economic recovery into job creation. SEE6
countries reduced their fiscal deficits to 3.8 percent of
GDP in 2013 from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012. The pace of
fiscal adjustment and still nascent economic growth were
insufficient to reverse public debt dynamics in SEE6. In a
low-inflation environment, SEE6 central banks moderately
loosened monetary policy. The financial sector remained
broadly stable, albeit fragile, in the course of 2013. The
SEE region is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2014 and
2.6 percent in 2015 on the back of external demand. The
positive growth since mid-2013 and the still accommodative
monetary conditions of the Euro Area are likely to continue
help SEE6 exports to grow, despite notable risks related to
the outlook for the Euro Area (related to the slow reform
implementation and prolonged period of low inflation or risk
of deflation).
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURE, ARREARS, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE SHEETS, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, BANK OF GREECE, BANK PROFITABILITY, BANK RECAPITALIZATION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKING SYSTEMS, BASIS POINTS, BILL, BROAD MONEY, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIOS, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL FLOW, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER PURCHASING, CONSUMERS, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT RATING, CREDIT RATINGS, CREDITOR, CURRENCY, CURRENCY BOARD, CURRENCY BOARDS, CURRENCY MARKETS, CURRENCY MISMATCH, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES, DEBT, DEBT CRISES, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT RATINGS, DEBTS, DEFLATION, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISINFLATION, DOMESTIC BOND, DOMESTIC BOND MARKETS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC DEMAND GROWTH, DOMESTIC INFLATION, DOWNWARD PRESSURE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, EQUIPMENT, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL ASSETS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES, FOOD PRICE, FOREIGN BANK, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FREE TRADE, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL INTEGRATION, GOLD, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNANCE STANDARDS, GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOST COUNTRIES, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSING, HOUSING PRICES, HUMAN CAPITAL, ILLIQUIDITY, IMPLICIT GUARANTEES, IMPORT, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME DIFFERENTIAL, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME TAXES, INFLATION, INFLATION ENVIRONMENT, INFLATION RATES, INFLATIONS, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INSTRUMENT, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, LABOR COSTS, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LEGAL SYSTEMS, LENDERS, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY RATIO, LIVING STANDARDS, LOAN, LOCAL BUSINESS, LOCAL CURRENCY, M2, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MATURITY, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY CONDITIONS, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, NATIONAL BANKS, NOMINAL INCOME, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OUTPUT GAPS, PEG, PENSION, PENSIONS, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INFLATION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, RATES OF RETURN, REAL GDP, RECESSION, REGIONAL BANKS, REGIONAL INFLATION, REGULATORY FORBEARANCE, REMITTANCES, RESERVE, RESERVE ASSETS, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RETURN, RETURN ON ASSETS, REVENUE SOURCES, RISK AVERSION, RULE OF LAW, SOVEREIGN DEBT, SPARE CAPACITY, STOCK MARKETS, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES, SUBSIDIARIES, SUBSIDIARY, SUPERVISORY AUTHORITIES, SWAPS, TAX, TAX COLLECTIONS, TAX HIKE, TAX INCREASE, TAX POLICY, TAX RATES, TAX REVENUES, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE DEFICITS, TRADE FLOWS, TRANSPORT, TREASURY, TREASURY YIELDS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, WAGES, WEALTH