Impact of Rising Rice Prices and Policy Responses in Mali : Simulations with a Dynamic CGE Model
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The increase in the international price
of rice is likely to have substantial negative impacts on
the poor in countries such as Mali which are net importers
of rice. This paper relies on a dynamic CGE model to
estimate the likely impact of the recent increase in rice
prices on poverty with and without policy responses. Two
sets of policy responses are considered: import tax cuts on
rice and measures to increase productivity of domestic rice
production. The results suggest that an increase in
productivity would have a much larger positive impact than a
reduction in taxes.
Palabras clave
AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRARIAN ECONOMY, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL WAGE, AGRICULTURAL WORKERS, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE PRICE, BASE YEAR, BREAD, CASH CROPS, CEREALS, COMMODITY, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMERS, CORN, DEMAND ANALYSIS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DOMESTIC MARKET, DYNAMIC ANALYSIS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL MARKET, FAIR, FARM, FARMERS, FERTILIZERS, FOOD CROP, FOOD CROP PRODUCTION, FOOD CROPS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, GLOBAL POVERTY, HOME MARKET, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD PER CAPITA INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IFPRI, IMPACT OF SHOCKS, IMPACT ON POVERTY, IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE, MARGINAL VALUE, MARKET DEMAND, MARKET EQUILIBRIUM, MARKET SUPPLY, MARKETING, MILLET, OPEN ECONOMY, PADDY, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POOR, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INCREASE, PRODUCER PRICE, PRODUCER PRICES, PRODUCTION INCREASES, PRODUCTION OF PADDY, PRODUCTION OF RICE, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFIT MAXIMIZATION, PUBLIC SPENDING, RICE MILLING, RICE PRICE, RICE PRICES, RICE PRODUCTION, RURAL, RURAL ACTIVITIES, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL POOR, RURAL WELFARE, SALES, SAVINGS, SEEDS, SORGHUM, STATIC EQUILIBRIUM, STATISTICAL DATA, STOCKS, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, TAXATION, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, UTILITY MAXIMIZATION, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DETERMINATION, WAGES, WHEAT, WORLD MARKETS, YIELDS