A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets
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In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early
Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price
forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for
the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in
conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4-
month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.