The impact of domestic and trade policies on the world cotton market
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There is a long tradition in the quantification of the impact of agricultural trade distortions on global markets, trade, and individual countries, notably in the context of the ongoing multilateral trade negotiations. This paper analyses the case of cotton in this context. Recently, the issue of cotton subsidies and their likely negative effects has attracted considerable attention and controversy. There are some model-based assessments of the impact, and their results differ markedly. While th e models utilized are similar in structure, the differences are in the assumptions about the levels of subsidies, as well as market parameters. This study presents some fresh estimates of the likely impact of cotton subsidies on both subsidizing and non-subsidizing countries using the UNCTAD-FAO ATPSM model. The analysis is based on official subsidies as notified to the WTO.