Micro Dynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper examines the microeconomics
behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during
the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the
universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period
2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the
export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate,
sector, and destination market levels to identify the role
of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product
turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate
export growth is dominated by growth in continuous
exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to
their continued destinations and of their continued
products. However, the observed high degree of churning
across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the
long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export
growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are
verified across sectors and across groups of destination
markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new
emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters
plays a more critical role for long-run growth.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, AGGREGATE EXPORTS, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE TRADE, BANK POLICY, BENCHMARKING, CLOTHING EXPORTS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT VALUES, CURRENCY, CURRENCY PEG, CUSTOMS UNION, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ECONOMIC SIZE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKETS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT DYNAMICS, EXPORT FLOWS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT SECTOR, EXPORT VALUE, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTER, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FOREIGN MARKETS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AREA, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL TRADE, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, IMPACT OF TRADE, INCOME LEVEL, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MARKET LEVELS, MERCHANDISE, MICRO DATA, NET EXPORTER, OPEN ECONOMY, OPENNESS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INDEX, PRODUCTS EXPORT, QUOTAS, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXPORTS, RECESSION, REGIONAL MARKETS, SUNK COSTS, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, TRADE COSTS, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE PERFORMANCE, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE REGIME, TRADE STATISTICS, TRADE STRUCTURE, TRADING, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSACTION, TRUST FUND, TURNOVER, UNCERTAINTY, UNIT LABOR COSTS, WAREHOUSES, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WTO