A partial adjustment model with rational expectations applied to the goat sector in Greece
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In this paper an attempt is made to examine the rational expectations hypothesis for the goat-meat sector in
Greece within the framework of a single equation method that describes the factors affecting demand and supply.
The structural equations of the model are estimated by applying the Cochrane-Orcutt technique. The calculated
elasticities suggest that Greek goat producers should pay more attention to milk rather than meat production.
Statistical indications also confirm the effects of the Chernobyl accident upon the goat sector. Moreover, the
forecasting ability of the model has been tested using simulation procedures, which indicate a small deviation
between theoretical and observed values. Finally, some further implications concerning the goat sector are drawn
from this analysis.