A stochastic approach to evaluating livestock marketing policy initiatives
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The problems of pastoralist livestock marketing systems in East Africa are well-documented
in the literature. They include poor transport infrastructure, inadequate market access and
frequent rejection of animals at certain markets. Thus far, few studies have analyzed the
effects of eliminating these problems. This study was based on household and market survey
data from the community of Il Ngwesi in the Laikipia district of Kenya. Our decision analysis
framework for pastoralist livestock producers uses a stochastic simulation model to evaluate
how policies that mitigate these marketing problems affect pastoralist incomes and marketing
patterns. We find that three of the five hypothetical policy simulations yield statistically
significant improvements on the baseline marketing scenario.