Labor Markets and Social Policy in a Rapidly Transforming and Aging Thailand
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper contributes to the
existing literature in several ways. First of all, to the
best of our knowledge this is the first paper to exclusively
model and analyze the impact of aging on long-term growth in
Thailand. Although there several studies that have analyzed
the relationship between aging and private saving in
Thailand, this is the first to employ a cointegration
analysis. This approach is more suitable given that we are
interested in the long-term relationship between the two and
the fact that demographic changes are slow. Moreover, this
paper is the first most comprehensive study of the
macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of aging in Thailand.
Existing studies have focused on how aging impacts one
variable (Pootrakool et al. 2005; IMF 2019). The rest of
this paper is organized as follows. Section two presents an
assessment of the impact of aging on macroeconomic
variables. Section three analyzes how aging is likely to
impact Thailand’s fiscal standing. Section four discusses
various reforms that can help mitigate the negative impact
of aging on long-term growth and fiscal sustainability and
section five concludes.
Palabras clave
MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF AGING, MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AGING, DEMOGRAPHICS OF THAILAND, POPULATION DECREASE, SHRINKING POPULATION, AGING POPULATION