Trade Agreements in South Asia
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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This paper quantifies the trade
creation effects of South Asia’s trade agreements within the
region and with the rest of the world. The paper uses an
extensive database of bilateral trade covering the
manufacturing, agriculture, and service sectors in 190
countries over 1990–2015. The estimates of various
specifications of a structural gravity model, including
domestic trade flows, capture the potential heterogeneous
effects. The main finding is that these effects are in
general stronger for trade agreements signed by South Asian
countries and even stronger in the case of intraregional
agreements. The effects of free trade agreements vary
substantially among countries and sectors and between final
and intermediate goods. The paper shows that the trade
policy implemented in South Asia in the previous decades has
been successful, but at the same time the results point
toward the existence of clear missing opportunities for the
region. The opportunities lay in (i) better backward
integration with the rest of the world to improve efficiency
and help strengthen exports, and (ii) further deepening of
intraregional agreements to continue making progress in
regional integration.
Palabras clave
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT, TRADE AGREEMENT, GRAVITY EQUATION, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN, TARRIFF, TRADE BARRIER, TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS