THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DOMESTIC OIL PRICE INCREASES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Vincent, David P.; Dixon, Peter B.; Parmenter, B.R.; Sams, D.C.

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DOMESTIC OIL PRICE INCREASES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Autores

Descripción

The rise in the domestic price of oil products implied by the new import parity pricing policy for domestic crude oil is likely to pose some problems for macroeconomic management. In this paper an attempt has been made to quantify the short-run adjustment problems involved, using the ORANI 78 model of the Australian economy. Results are presented for a range of variables of interest, including macroeconomic variables, industrial and workforce composition and farm incomes. With fixed real wages, farm incomes are projected to decline by between 6 and 8 per cent.