Economic viability of the low carbon brazilian beef under market risks.
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ABSTRACT The integrated crop-livestock systems (ICL) are alternatives to reduce GHG emissions, while increasing beef and crops production. In particular, the economic viability of new Low Carbon Brazilian Beef (LCBB) protocol remains to be proved for farmers to adopt it. The aim of this study was to analyze the economic viability of the LCBB protocol from an ICL system, under market risks, considering an alternative monetization for the protocol and various scenarios of input and output prices. A deterministic and a stochastic investment analysis was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation from @ Risk®, varying beef, soybean, urea and NPK fertilizer prices. ICL, with and without the LCBB protocol, was economically viable and presented very low market risks, given the past ten years of prices. In general, output prices were most influential on the Present Net Value. LCBB protocol improves the financial results, but implementation and running costs of the certification process must be cautiously established for the protocol to remain economically attractive to farmers. Key words: Integrated Farming Systems; Investment analysis; Risk analysis
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Integrated Farming Systems, Investment analysis, Risk analysis