Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

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dc.creatorBreisinger, Clemens
dc.creatorEngelke, Wilfried
dc.creatorMukashov, Askar
dc.creatorWiebelt, Manfred
dc.date2020-04-01
dc.date2024-05-22T12:16:52Z
dc.date2024-05-22T12:16:52Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:39:58Z
dc.descriptionEvidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/143785
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/111069
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293601
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133552
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134258
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBreisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; and Wiebelt, Manfred. 2020. Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen. MENA RP Working Paper 29. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133736.
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjecteconomic analysis
dc.subjecteconomic growth
dc.subjectpost-conflict settings
dc.subjectemployment
dc.subjectuncertainty
dc.subjectcapacity development
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectconflicts
dc.subjectreconstruction
dc.subjectgross national product
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectpoverty reduction
dc.titleModel-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)