Review of the Actuarial Forecasts of the Proposed Contributory Social Security Regime in Timor-Leste
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Jakarta
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This report briefly summarizes the
results for the analysis of the design, financing and
administrative processes for a national social security
system covering all salaried workers in Timor-Leste,
including analysis of the actuarial report (ACL Report)
prepared for the Directorate General of Social Security by
its consultant. The report is divided into seven sections:
(i) Scope of Work; (ii) ACL Report Assumptions and Methods
Comment; (iii) ACL Plan Design Comments; (iv) PROST
Analysis: ACL Report Design, Assumptions and Methods; (v)
PROST Analysis: ACL Report Design, Bank Assumptions and
Methods; (vi) Social Security Pension Fund Establishment;
and (vii) Conclusion. In the final analysis it was
determined that the ACL report does not meet international
standards for actuarial reports for national social
insurance systems. Furthermore it misrepresents the
long-term costs of the proposed Timor-Leste national social
security system by using non-standard assumptions and
methods and an unusually short analysis period. It is
suggested that the government of Timor-Leste carefully
consider all aspects of design and funding before adopting
the new system, as the decisions made will have very
significant macroeconomic, labor market, budget, and social
policy implications for the country for decades to come.
Palabras clave
ACCRUAL RATE, ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS, BANK OFFICE, BANKRUPTCY, BENEFICIARIES, BENEFICIARY, BENEFIT PAYMENT, BENEFIT PAYMENTS, CASH FLOWS, CHILD SUPPORT, CITIZEN, CITIZENS, CONTRIBUTION COLLECTION, CONTRIBUTION RATE, CONTRIBUTION RATES, CORRUPTION, COST ESTIMATES, DEFINED BENEFIT, DEFINED BENEFIT PLAN, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISABILITY, DISABLED, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, EMPLOYERS, EXPENDITURES, FAMILIES, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATES, FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FRAUD, FULL DISCLOSURE, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL STANDARD, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LARGE FAMILIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LONG-TERM COST, LONG-TERM COSTS, MATURITY, MINIMUM BENEFIT, MORAL HAZARD, MORTALITY, OLD AGE, PAYROLL COSTS, PENSION, PENSION BENEFITS, PENSION FUND, PENSION FUND ASSETS, PENSION FUNDS, PENSION PROGRAMS, PENSION SCHEME, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSIONABLE EARNINGS, PENSIONERS, PENSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, PRIVATE PENSION, PRIVATE PENSION FUNDS, RATE OF RETURN, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATE, RESERVES, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT AGE, RETIREMENT BENEFITS, RETIREMENTS, SANITATION, SEX, SOCIAL INSURANCE, SOCIAL INSURANCE SYSTEMS, SOCIAL PENSION, SOCIAL PENSIONS, SOCIAL POLICY, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM, SPOUSE, TAX, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUATION, VALUATIONS, WILL, WIVES, YOUNG AGE, YOUNG CHILDREN