Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War : A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Why do larger countries have more armed
conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses
forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the
relationship between the size and location of population
groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on
distances, on population concentrations, and some residual
state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a
new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events
Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into
individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in
Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with
geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance
to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops
a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The
analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.
Palabras clave
ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED CONFLICTS, CITIES, CITIZEN, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, CONFLICT RISK, DEATHS, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC, DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATIONS, EFFECTS OF POPULATION, ETHNIC GROUPS, FACTORS, GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION, HAZARD FUNCTION, HAZARD OF WAR, IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INHABITANTS, INTERNAL CONFLICTS, INTERNATIONAL BORDERS, LARGE POPULATION, LOCAL POPULATION, MINORITIES, MINORITY, MOTHER, NATIONAL AUTHORITIES, NATIONAL BORDERS, NATIONAL LEVEL, PEACE, POINT OF DEPARTURE, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CONTEST, POLITICAL POWER, POPULATION, POPULATION CONCENTRATION, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION GEOGRAPHY, POPULATION GROUPS, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION SIZE, POPULATION VARIABLE, POPULOUS COUNTRIES, POST-CONFLICT, PROBABILITY OF WAR, PROGRESS, REBEL GROUP, REBEL GROUPS, REBELLION, REBELLIONS, RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION, RESPECT, RISK OF CONFLICT, RISK OF REBELLION, SIZE OF POPULATIONS, SMALL COUNTRIES, SOVEREIGNTY, SPILLOVER, TOTAL POPULATION, TOWNS, TRANSPORTATION, URBAN AREAS, WARS