The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

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dc.creatorAmare, Mulubrhan
dc.creatorOmamo, Steven Were
dc.creatorBalana, Bedru
dc.creatorAndam, Kwaw S.
dc.creatorNwagboso, Chibuzo
dc.creatorIraoya, Augustine
dc.creatorPopoola, Olufemi
dc.creatorLoum, Serigne
dc.creatorJawed, Khusro
dc.date2025-10-28
dc.date2025-10-28T16:10:30Z
dc.date2025-10-28T16:10:30Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:42:22Z
dc.descriptionOver the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/177382
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/112306
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAmare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; et al. 2025. The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2371. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjecthouseholds
dc.subjectmarkets
dc.subjectpolicy innovation
dc.subjectprice volatility
dc.titleThe price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)