Hydrological modeling in the agrotechnological district (DAT) of Jacupiranga: climate trends and hydrological drought.

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dc.contributorLETÍCIA LOPES MARTINS, INSTITUTO AGRONÔMICO DE CAMPINAS; JENER FERNANDO LEITE DE MORAES, INSTITUTO AGRONÔMICO DE CAMPINAS; EDSON LUIS BOLFE, CNPTIA; ISABELLA CLERICI DE MARIA, INSTITUTO AGRONÔMICO DE CAMPINAS; JANE MARIA DE CARVALHO SILVEIRA, INSTITUTO AGRONÔMICO DE CAMPINAS.
dc.creatorMARTINS, L. L.
dc.creatorMORAES, J. F. L. de
dc.creatorBOLFE, E. L.
dc.creatorDE MARIA, I. C.
dc.creatorSILVEIRA, J. M. de C.
dc.date2026-03-30T19:51:15Z
dc.date2026-03-30T19:51:15Z
dc.date2026-03-30
dc.date2025
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T04:18:42Z
dc.descriptionClimate change has significantly altered hydrological regimes in many regions, affecting water availability and intensifying extreme events such as hydrological droughts. This study assessed climate trends and drought occurrences in the Jacupiranga Agrotechnological District watershed (São Paulo, Brazil) using hydrometeorological time series (1961–2019) and hydrological modeling with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Statistical analyses revealed significant increases in minimum (+2.15°C) and maximum (+2.45°C) temperatures, along with persistent hydrological droughts following the 2013–2015 water crisis, indicating shifts in the regional hydrological regime. The SWAT model accurately captured seasonal streamflow patterns, though it overestimated peak streamflow. Further model calibration will refine the analysis of climate change and land-use impacts on hydrological variables. The findings underscore the importance of public policies and water conservation practices to enhance regional water resilience and guide sustainable resource management.
dc.descriptionOrganização: Silvia Maria Fonseca Silveira Massruhá, Durval Dourado Neto, Luciana Alvim Santos Romani, Jayme Garcia Arnal Barbedo, Édson Luis Bolfe, Ivan Bergier, Maria Angelica de Andrade Leite, Vitor Del Alamo Guarda, Catarina Barbosa Careta.
dc.identifierIn: WORKSHOP CIENTÍFICO DO CENTRO DE CIÊNCIA PARA O DESENVOLVIMENTO EM AGRICULTURA DIGITAL – SEMEAR DIGITAL, 2., 2025, Campinas. Anais [...]. Piracicaba: ESALQ/USP, 2025. p. 274-280.
dc.identifier978-85-86481-94-9
dc.identifierhttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1185922
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/457418
dc.languagepor
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectTendências de temperatura
dc.subjectModelo SWAT
dc.subjectDistrito agrotecnológico de Jacupiranga
dc.subjectProjeto Semear Digital
dc.subjectTemperature trends
dc.subjectSWAT model
dc.subjectDrought events
dc.subjectSeca
dc.subjectTemperatura
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.titleHydrological modeling in the agrotechnological district (DAT) of Jacupiranga: climate trends and hydrological drought.
dc.typeArtigo em anais e proceedings

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