ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns

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dc.creatorAjmani, Manmeet Singh
dc.creatorChoudhary, Vishruta
dc.creatorKishore, Avinash
dc.creatorRoy, Devesh
dc.date2020-02-01
dc.date2024-05-22T12:14:39Z
dc.date2024-05-22T12:14:39Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:26:30Z
dc.descriptionWe assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/143495
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/104473
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/147391
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133278
dc.relationhttps://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/leaving-rcep-a-missed-opportunity-120011601418_1.html
dc.relationhttps://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/2018/05/22/from-look-east-act-east-india-must-think-big-and-act-big.html
dc.relationhttps://thediplomat.com/2018/01/how-did-sanctions-impact-myanmar/
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAjmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; and Roy, Devesh. 2020. ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1914. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133662.
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectasean
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectgravity charts
dc.subjectinternational trade
dc.titleASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)