What Are the Links between Aid Volatility and Growth?

dc.creatorMarkandya, Anil
dc.creatorPonczek, Vladimir
dc.creatorYi, Soonhwa
dc.date2014-09-02T17:11:05Z
dc.date2014-09-02T17:11:05Z
dc.date2010-02
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:13:47Z
dc.descriptionThis paper adds to aid volatility literature in three ways: First it tests the validity of the aid volatility and growth relationship from various aspects: across different time horizons, by sources of aid, and by aid volatility interactions with country characteristics. Second, it investigates the relationship by the level of aid absorption and spending. Third, when examining the relationship between International Development Association aid volatility and growth, it isolates International Development Association aid volatility due to the recipient country's performance from that due to other sources. The findings suggest that, in the long run, on average, aid volatility is negatively correlated with real economic growth. But the relationship is not even. It is stronger for Sub-Saharan African countries than for other regions and it is not present in middle-income countries or countries with strong institutions. For economies where aid is fully absorbed, aid volatility matters for long-run growth; economies with full aid spending also bear a negative impact of aid volatility on long-run growth. Where aid is not fully absorbed, or where it is not fully spent, the aid volatility relationship is not significant. Looking at International Development Association aid separately, the volatility arising from the recipient country's International Development Association performance does not have a causal relationship with growth. In policy terms, the results suggest that low- income countries with weak institutions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, could benefit from reduced aid volatility or from being better prepared for the volatility that is there.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/02/11745307/links-between-aid-volatility-growth
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/19914
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5201
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/416303
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 5201
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectAID
dc.subjectAID DEPENDENCY
dc.subjectAID FLOWS
dc.subjectAMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
dc.subjectANNUAL % CHANGE
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectBILATERAL AID
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITALIST PROCESS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY LEVEL
dc.subjectCOUNTRY REGRESSIONS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY RISK
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT AID
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ISSUES
dc.subjectDISEASE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC RESOURCES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC REFORM
dc.subjectECONOMICS LETTERS
dc.subjectERROR TERMS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE POLICY
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VOLATILITY
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE BANK
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFIXED ASSETS
dc.subjectFLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGETS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectGROWTH LITERATURE
dc.subjectGROWTH REGRESSIONS
dc.subjectGROWTH RELATIONSHIP
dc.subjectGROWTH STANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectGROWTH VOLATILITY
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCREASE IN VOLATILITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES
dc.subjectINTERACTION EFFECTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectLEVEL OF INCOME
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLONG RUN
dc.subjectLONG-RUN GROWTH
dc.subjectLONG-RUN IMPACT
dc.subjectLOW INCOME
dc.subjectLOW INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLOW- INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMEDIUM TERM
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMONETARY ECONOMICS
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONOTONIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectNET CHANGES
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL INSTABILITY
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectPOVERTY TRAPS
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectREGRESSION MODEL
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSTANDARD ERRORS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTRADABLE SECTORS
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectVOLATILITY COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectVOLATILITY LITERATURE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY MEASURE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY-GROWTH
dc.titleWhat Are the Links between Aid Volatility and Growth?

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