Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, October 2011
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The economic rebound in recent quarters
has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing
signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising
inflation, especially of those goods and services which are
in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose
local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing
demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8
percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of
17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will
likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in
2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as
Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation
continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to
record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month
rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment
and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven
by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues
this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in
expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).
Palabras clave
ADB, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURE, AIR POLLUTION, ANNUAL GROWTH, ARREARS, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEET, BALANCE SHEETS, BANK LOAN, BANK RATE, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BASE PRICES, BASIC NEEDS, BASIS POINTS, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE, BENEFICIARIES, BID, BLACK MARKET, BOND, BOND FUNDS, BOOM-BUST CYCLE, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGETING, BUFFERS, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL GAINS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CASH TRANSFER, CASH TRANSFERS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANK BILLS, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMERCIAL TERMS, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CORE INFLATION, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT LINE, CREDIT LINES, CURRENCY APPRECIATION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT MARKETS, DEFICITS, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DISBURSEMENTS, DIVIDENDS, DOLLAR VALUE, DOMESTIC BONDS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, DOMESTIC GOODS, DOMESTIC INFLATION, DOWNWARD PRESSURE, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMPLOYMENT, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY FUNDS, EQUITY MARKETS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCISE TAXES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT REVENUES, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL SHOCK, EXTERNAL TRADE, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CONTAGION, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL RISK, FINANCIAL RISKS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL BALANCES, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL TRADE, GOLD, GOLD PRICES, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT POLICY, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HOUSING, HOUSING PRICES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORTS, INCOME TAX, INCOME TAXES, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION RATE, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INSURANCE, INSURANCE PREMIUMS, INTEREST PAYMENT, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INVESTMENT BOOM, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTMENT SPENDING, ISSUANCE, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE SURVEYS, LABOR MARKETS, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY RISKS, LOAN, LOAN CLASSIFICATION, LOAN PORTFOLIO, LOAN STOCK, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL MARKET, MANDATES, MARKET FORCES, MATURITY, MATURITY MISMATCHES, MINERAL PRICES, MONETARY POLICY, MORTGAGE, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, NOMINAL INTEREST RATES, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL REVENUES, OPEN MARKET, OTHER CURRENCIES, OUTSTANDING LOANS, OUTTURN, OUTTURNS, PARALLEL MARKET, PARALLEL MARKET RATE, PEG, PENSIONS, PERSONAL INCOME, PERSONAL INCOME TAXES, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PREPAYMENT, PREPAYMENTS, PRICE INFLATION, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATE, REAL INTEREST RATES, REAL SECTOR, RECEIPTS, REMITTANCES, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RESERVES, RISK AVERSION, RISK FACTORS, SHORTFALLS, SLOWDOWN, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS, SOCIAL WELFARE, STOCK MARKET, STRONG CONSUMER DEMAND, STRONG DEMAND, SUBSIDIZATION, SURPLUS, TAX, TAX REVENUES, TIME DEPOSITS, TOTAL DEPOSITS, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DATA, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE DEFICITS, TRADE SECTOR, TRADE SHOCK, TRANSFER PAYMENT, TRANSPORT, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WAGES, WEALTH, WELFARE SYSTEM, WITHDRAWAL