Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2013
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Washington, DC
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Following a strong performance in 2012,
Malaysia's economy hit a soft patch in the first
quarter of 2013. Economic growth has been supported by the
strong, broad-based performance of domestic consumption and
investment from public and private sources. The acceleration
of investment growth has been a key feature of the recent
growth trend. Public and private consumption has also
underpinned growth. Accommodative fiscal and monetary
policies have supported both higher (real) household incomes
and sustained credit growth, which along with firm labor
markets provided a solid backdrop for consumption growth
even as agricultural commodity prices declined. Despite
significant expenditure overruns, the government met its
fiscal deficit target for 2012. Supply-side factors kept
inflation subdued amidst robust domestic demand. Monetary
authorities emphasized macro-prudential regulation as the
policy interest rate continued to be pulled in two
directions. Malaysia is likely to continue posting solid
growth rates in 2013 and 2014. Growth in 2013 is projected
to come at 5.1 percent, supported by the strong momentum in
investment growth, still-accommodative fiscal and monetary
policies, higher household income due to tight labor
markets, and modest improvement in the export sector. The
sustainability of Malaysia's favorable near-term
prospects into 2015 and beyond continues to hinge on the
implementation of structural reforms. Having a rigorous
investigation of the effectiveness of various tax incentives
across different industries, and comparing the benefits with
the costs in foregone revenues, will provide important
lessons, to Malaysia and other countries, of the appropriate
role for fiscal incentives in horizontal diversification.
Palabras clave
ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURE, ASSET PRICE, ASSETS, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE, BENEFIT ANALYSIS, BILLS, BONDS, BUFFER, BUFFERS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CARBON, CARBON EMISSIONS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORPORATE INCOME TAXES, CPI, CURRENCY, CURRENCY ASSETS, CURRENCY SWAPS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEBT, DECLINE IN INFLATION, DEFICITS, DEFORESTATION, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DIRECT INVESTMENTS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC DEMAND GROWTH, DRAG ON GROWTH, DUTCH DISEASE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC MODEL, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ELECTRICITY GENERATION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY DEMAND, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION, ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, EQUITY MARKET, ERROR CORRECTION MODEL, EXCESS CAPACITY, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTER, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL FACTORS, EXTERNAL SHOCK, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL POSITION, FISHING, FIXED CAPITAL, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN ASSETS, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY ASSETS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FORESTRY, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AREA, GDP, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL LIQUIDITY, GNP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS NATIONAL INCOME, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOLDINGS, IMBALANCES, IMPORT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INTEREST RATE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVESTMENT BANKING, INVESTMENT BOOM, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LAND USE, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS, LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT, LOOSE MONETARY POLICY, LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS, LOW INTEREST RATES, M3, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, METALS, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONETARY TRANSACTIONS, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL CAPITAL, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NET EXPORTS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, OIL, OIL PRICES, OIL REVENUES, OIL SECTOR, OPEC, OPEN ECONOMY, OUTPUT GAP, PERMANENT INCOME, PRICE CONTROLS, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRODUCERS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RE-EXPORTS, REAL APPRECIATION, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, REAL WAGE GROWTH, RECESSION, RECYCLING, REDUCING EMISSIONS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, REVENUE RECYCLING, RISK AVERSION, SECURITIES, SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, SLOWDOWN, SLOWDOWNS, SPARE CAPACITY, STRUCTURAL REFORM, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUPPLY SIDE, SUPPLY-SIDE, SURPLUS, TAX, TAX REVENUES, TERMS OF TRADE, TIMBER, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE ACCOUNTS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE PATTERNS, TRADING PARTNERS, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VALUATION, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE