Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems

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dc.creatorBrychkova, Galina
dc.creatorKekae, K.
dc.creatorMcKeown, Peter C.
dc.creatorHanson, Jean
dc.creatorJones, Christopher S.
dc.creatorThornton, Philip K.
dc.creatorSpillane, Charles
dc.date2022-11-28
dc.date2022-11-29T18:07:02Z
dc.date2022-11-29T18:07:02Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T17:06:22Z
dc.descriptionForage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currently recommended for Ethiopian dairy systems. We determine areas of geographical suitability for each species using three climate projections generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and calculate their ability to meet predicted dry matter demand under four scenarios for livestock intensification and land availability. By 2050, Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is likely to be negatively affected by climate change in regions such as Tigray, while Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) and Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus) may have improved suitability under future climates. Our findings suggest that feed demands could theoretically be met by production of these forage grasses under current and future climates. However, if land availability is reduced and herd composition shifts towards higher-productivity exotic breeds, forage resources will not meet cattle demand even with improved agronomic management.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/125703
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/142356
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBrychkova, G., Kekae, K., McKeown, P.C., Hanson, J., Jones, C.S., Thornton, P. and Spillane, C. 2022. Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems. Scientific Reports 12:20512.
dc.subjectanimal feeding
dc.subjectforage
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectgoats
dc.subjectsmall ruminants
dc.subjectdairying
dc.titleClimate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigaciones Pecuarias (ILRI)