The Demographic Benefit of International Migration : Hypothesis and Application to Middle Eastern and North African Contexts

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dc.creatorFargues, Philippe
dc.date2012-06-26T20:09:47Z
dc.date2012-06-26T20:09:47Z
dc.date2006-11-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:08:49Z
dc.descriptionThe view that international migration has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible one. But the author argues, migration from developing to more industrial countries during the past decades may have resulted in a smaller world population than the one which would have been attained had no international migration taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants typically adopt and send back to their home countries models and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity, that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials encountered through migration in these three countries offer contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes the course of demographic transition in origin countries, the author posits that it should work in two opposite directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests that Moroccan and Turkish emigration to Europe has been accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding marriage and birth, while Egyptian migration to the Gulf has not brought home innovative attitudes in this domain, but rather material resources for the achievement of traditional family goals. Other data suggest that emigration has fostered education in Morocco and Turkey but not in Egypt. And as has been found in the literature, education is the single most important determinant of demographic transition among nonmigrant populations in migrants' regions of origin. Two broader conclusions are drawn. First, the acceleration of the demographic transition in Morocco and Turkey is correlated with migration to Europe, a region where low birth-rates is the dominant pattern. This suggests that international migration may have produced a global demographic benefit under the form of a relaxation of demographic pressures for the world as a whole. Second, if it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in matters related with family and education, then the same may apply to a wider range of civil behavior.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/11/7155097/demographic-benefit-international-migration-hypothesis-application-middle-eastern-north-african-contexts
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/9287
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4050
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/415593
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4050
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGE AT MARRIAGE
dc.subjectALIENS
dc.subjectAUTONOMY
dc.subjectBASIC NEEDS
dc.subjectBIRTH CONTROL
dc.subjectBIRTH RATE
dc.subjectBIRTH RATES
dc.subjectBORDERS
dc.subjectBRAIN DRAIN
dc.subjectCHILDBEARING
dc.subjectCHILDREN PER WOMAN
dc.subjectCHOICE OF PARTNER
dc.subjectCITIZENS
dc.subjectCONTRACEPTION
dc.subjectCOUNTRIES OF DEPARTURE
dc.subjectCOUNTRIES OF DESTINATION
dc.subjectCOUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCOUNTRY OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCULTURAL CONTEXT
dc.subjectCULTURAL MODELS
dc.subjectDEATH RATES
dc.subjectDECLINE OF FERTILITY
dc.subjectDECLINES IN FERTILITY
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHERS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHY
dc.subjectDEPENDENCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOWRY
dc.subjectDYING
dc.subjectEARLY MARRIAGE
dc.subjectEDUCATION
dc.subjectEDUCATION OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectEMIGRANTS
dc.subjectEMIGRATION
dc.subjectEXPATRIATES
dc.subjectEXTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectFAMILY REUNIFICATION
dc.subjectFAMILY SIZE
dc.subjectFEMALE EDUCATION
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFERTILITY DECLINE
dc.subjectFERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATE
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATES
dc.subjectFERTILITY SURVEY
dc.subjectFERTILITY TRANSITION
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectGENDER
dc.subjectHEALTH
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHOST COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHOST POPULATION
dc.subjectHOST SOCIETY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN POPULATIONS
dc.subjectHUSBANDS
dc.subjectIMMIGRANT
dc.subjectIMMIGRANTS
dc.subjectIMMIGRATION
dc.subjectIMPACT OF MIGRATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MIGRANTS
dc.subjectLABOR MIGRATION
dc.subjectLARGER FAMILIES
dc.subjectLEVEL OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectLEVEL OF FERTILITY
dc.subjectLEVELS OF FERTILITY
dc.subjectLIVING CONDITIONS
dc.subjectLOCAL COMMUNITY
dc.subjectLOWER BIRTH RATES
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectMARRIED WOMEN
dc.subjectMASS EDUCATION
dc.subjectMATERIAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectMEDIA
dc.subjectMIDDLE EASTERN
dc.subjectMIGRANT
dc.subjectMIGRANT POPULATIONS
dc.subjectMIGRANTS
dc.subjectMIGRATION FLOWS
dc.subjectMIGRATION STATISTICS
dc.subjectMIGRATIONS
dc.subjectMOBILITY
dc.subjectMODERNIZATION
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
dc.subjectNATIONAL POPULATION
dc.subjectNATIONAL POPULATIONS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectOVERPOPULATION
dc.subjectPARENTS
dc.subjectPOINT OF DEPARTURE
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH DIVISION
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOPULATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectPOPULATION CENSUS
dc.subjectPOPULATION CHANGE
dc.subjectPOPULATION COUNCIL
dc.subjectPOPULATION DATA
dc.subjectPOPULATION DATA COLLECTION
dc.subjectPOPULATION DENSITY
dc.subjectPOPULATION FORECASTING
dc.subjectPOPULATION MIGRATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectPOPULATION POLICY
dc.subjectPOPULATION PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectPROCREATION
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectRAPID POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF MIGRATION
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectREPRODUCTION
dc.subjectREPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRETURNEES
dc.subjectSEX
dc.subjectSEX PREFERENCE
dc.subjectSEX RATIO
dc.subjectSOCIAL GROUPS
dc.subjectSOCIAL SCIENCE
dc.subjectSOCIAL UPHEAVAL
dc.subjectSOCIETIES
dc.subjectSTATE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADITIONAL FAMILY
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectWAR
dc.subjectWELFARE STATE
dc.subjectWORLD POPULATION
dc.subjectYOUNG GIRLS
dc.subjectYOUTH
dc.titleThe Demographic Benefit of International Migration : Hypothesis and Application to Middle Eastern and North African Contexts

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