On SARS Type Economic Effects During Infectious Disease Outbreaks
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Infectious disease outbreaks can exact a
high human and economic cost through illness and death.
But, as with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in
East Asia in 2003, or the plague outbreak in Surat, India,
in 1994, they can also create severe economic disruptions
even when there is, ultimately, relatively little illness or
death. Such disruptions are commonly the result of
uncoordinated and panicky efforts by individuals to avoid
becoming infected, of preventive activity. This paper places
these "SARS type" effects in the context of
research on economic epidemiology, in which behavioral
responses to disease risk have both economic and
epidemiological consequences. The paper looks in particular
at how people form subjective probability judgments about
disease risk. Public opinion surveys during the SARS
outbreak provide suggestive evidence that people did indeed
at times hold excessively high perceptions of the risk of
becoming infected, or, if infected, of dying from the
disease. The paper discusses research in behavioral
economics and the theory of information cascades that may
shed light on the origin of such biases. The authors
consider whether public information strategies can help
reduce unwarranted panic. A preliminary question is why
governments often seem to have strong incentives to conceal
information about infectious disease outbreaks. The paper
reviews recent game-theoretic analysis that clarifies
government incentives. An important finding is that
government incentives to conceal decline the more numerous
are non-official sources of information about a possible
disease outbreak. The findings suggest that honesty may
indeed be the best public policy under modern conditions of
easy mass global communications.
Palabras clave
ACCIDENT, ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME, AGGRESSIVE, AIDS EPIDEMIC, AIDS PREVALENCE, AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION, AVIAN INFLUENZA, BEHAVIOR CHANGE, BULLETIN, BURDEN OF DISEASE, CHOLERA, CITIZENS, CLINICAL DIAGNOSES, COMMUNITY HEALTH, COMPLICATIONS, CONDOM, CONDOM USE, CONDOMS, DEATHS, DEMAND FOR CONDOMS, DEMAND FOR VACCINES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIAGNOSES, DISABILITY, DISASTER, DISEASE, DISEASE OUTBREAK, DISEASE OUTBREAKS, DISEASE PREVALENCE, DISEASE PREVENTION, DISEASE REPORTING, DISEASE SURVEILLANCE, DOCTORS, DRUGS, DYING, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EFFECTIVE POLICIES, EMERGING INFLUENZA PANDEMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, EPIDEMIC, EPIDEMIC DISEASE, EPIDEMICS, EPIDEMIOLOGY, ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS, EXTREME EVENTS, FAMILIES, FATALITIES, FATALITY, FLOW OF INFORMATION, GAY MEN, GLOBAL BURDEN, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE, HAZARD, HEALTH AUTHORITIES, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE PROFESSIONALS, HEALTH OFFICIALS, HEALTH POLICIES, HEALTH POLICY, HEALTH REGULATIONS, HEALTH RESEARCH, HEALTH SURVEILLANCE, HEALTH SYSTEM, HEALTH SYSTEMS, HEALTHY LIFE, HIGH FEVER, HIV, HOSPITAL, HOSPITALS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN HEALTH, ILLNESS, IMMUNIZATION, INDIVIDUAL CHOICES, INDIVIDUAL NEEDS, INFECTION, INFECTION RATE, INFECTIONS, INFECTIOUS DISEASE, INFECTIOUS DISEASES, INFLUENZA, INFLUENZA ACTIVITY, INFLUENZA PANDEMIC, INFLUENZA PANDEMICS, INFLUENZA VIRUS, INTERNATIONAL AGENCY, INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE, INTERNATIONAL POLICY, INTERVENTION, JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, JOURNALISTS, LABOR FORCE, LAM, LIFE EXPECTANCY, MALARIA, MEASLES, MEDICAL ASSISTANCE, MEDICAL CARE, MEDICAL SCHOOLS, MEDICAL SERVICES, MEDICAL TREATMENT, MILITARY MEDICINE, MINISTRY OF HEALTH, MORBIDITY, MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY, MORTALITY, MORTALITY RISK, MUMPS, NEW INFECTIONS, NUMBER OF NEW INFECTIONS, NURSING, OLD DISEASES, OUTBREAK CONTROL, PACIFIC REGION, PANDEMIC INFLUENZA, PATIENT, PATIENTS, PHARMACIES, PHYSICIAN, PHYSICIANS, PLAGUE, PNEUMONIA, POLICY BRIEF, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY LEVEL, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLIO, POLITICAL OPPOSITION, POLITICAL SUPPORT, POOR HEALTH, POSTERS, PREMATURE DEATH, PREVALENCE, PREVENTION STRATEGIES, PREVENTIVE ACTION, PREVENTIVE ACTIONS, PREVENTIVE HEALTH CARE, PROGRESS, PROPHYLAXIS, PSYCHOLOGY, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC HEALTH AUTHORITIES, PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY, PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM, PUBLIC INFORMATION, PUBLIC OPINION, PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS, PUBLIC POLICY, RADIO, RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS, RESEARCH PROGRAM, RESPECT, RESTAURANTS, RISK FACTORS, RISK OF INFECTION, RUBELLA, SANCTIONS, SEXUAL ACTIVITY, SEXUAL BEHAVIOR, SEXUAL PARTNERS, SEXUAL PRACTICES, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES, SMALLPOX, SOUTH AMERICA, SPECIALISTS, SYMPTOMS, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TRANSPORTATION, TV, VACCINATION, VACCINATION PROGRAM, VACCINE, VACCINES, WORK FORCE, WORKERS, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION