From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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This report focuses on the challenges
that the region's aging countries will now face in
having to deal with multiple transitions. It argues that
their task ahead, though uniquely daunting, is by no means
impossible. Indeed, many of the potential problems can be
addressed through sensible and thoughtful policies that can
be enacted over the next few years. The only danger likely
lies in complacency, in not being proactive in addressing
the challenges. This report finds, first, that some of the
concerns about aging in Eastern European and Former Soviet
countries are probably misplaced. Second, the analysis in
the report validates concerns about future fiscal strains in
some of the region's aging countries, but finds that
many of the drivers of higher future public expenditures are
unrelated to aging. This report is particularly focused on
the future-a future in the region that is critically
dependent on actions that countries and societies take now,
and over the next few years. The report sends two central
messages, which are analyzed against the different patterns
of aging across the region. Red light to green light:
Growing older does not have to mean growing slower. Aging is
not a stop sign for growth-if countries enact policies that
boost productivity and labor force participation. Red ink to
black ink: Waging sensible policies can ease aging's
spending impact. The policies needed to manage much of the
expected jump in public spending-especially the impacts on
pensions and on health care-are well known. They need only
to be enacted and implemented.
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ACCESS TO CREDIT, ADDITIONAL SAVINGS, ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS, AVERAGE WAGE, BANKS, BENEFICIARIES, BIRTH RATES, BUSINESS CLIMATE, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CHANGE IN POPULATION, CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE, CHILD CARE, CHILDBEARING, CHILDREN PER WOMAN, CITIZENS, CONSUMER, CONTRIBUTION, CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEMES, CONTRIBUTIONS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT PENSION, DECLINES IN FERTILITY, DEFINED-CONTRIBUTION PENSION, DEMOCRACY, DEMOGRAPHERS, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPOSITS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISABILITY, DISSEMINATION, DIVORCE, EARLY RETIREMENT, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC TRANSITION, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELDERLY, ELDERLY POPULATION, EXISTING POPULATION, FAMILY ALLOWANCES, FAMILY POLICIES, FEMALE LABOR FORCE, FEMALE LIFE EXPECTANCY, FERTILITY, FERTILITY DECLINES, FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATES, FERTILITY TRANSITION, FINANCIAL AFFAIRS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL OPTIONS, FINANCIAL PRODUCTS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, FISCAL EFFORT, FISCAL PROBLEMS, FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY, FORCED SAVINGS, FUTURE GROWTH, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL INCOME, HEALTH CARE, HIV, HOUSEHOLD SAVING, HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS, HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS, IMMIGRATION, INCOME, INCOMES, INFLATION, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATES, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCES, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR SHORTAGES, LABOR SUPPLY, LARGER FAMILIES, LEGAL STATUS, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LEVELS OF FERTILITY, LIFE EXPECTANCIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIFE SPAN, LIFELONG LEARNING, LIFETIME, LITERACY, LIVING STANDARDS, LONG-TERM CARE, LONG-TERM CARE POLICY, LONGER LIFE, MARITAL STATUS, MARKET CAPITALIZATION, MARKET ECONOMIES, MARKET ECONOMY, MATERNITY HOSPITALS, MATERNITY LEAVE, MATH, MATHEMATICS, MEDICAL CARE, MIGRANTS, MORTALITY, NATIONAL LEGISLATION, NEW JOBS, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, OLD-AGE, OLDER INDIVIDUALS, OLDER PEOPLE, OLDER WOMEN, OLDER WORKERS, OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOMEN, PARENTAL LEAVE, PENSION, PENSION BENEFITS, PENSION FUND, PENSION POLICIES, PENSION POLICY, PENSION REFORM, PENSION REFORMS, PENSION SPENDING, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSION SYSTEMS, PENSIONERS, PENSIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POOR POPULATIONS, POOR WOMEN, POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE, POPULATION CHANGE, POPULATION DECLINE, POPULATION DECLINES, POPULATION DECREASES, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION FORECASTING, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION GROWTH RATES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION STRUCTURE, POPULATION STRUCTURES, PREGNANT WOMEN, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE PENSION, PRIVATE PENSIONS, PRIVATE SAVING, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRESS, PROSPERITY, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC HOSPITALS, PUBLIC PENSION, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL ESTATE, RELATED COSTS, REMITTANCES, REPLACEMENT LEVEL, REPRODUCTIVE CHOICES, RESEARCH ASSISTANCE, RETIRED, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT AGE, RETIREMENT AGES, REVERSE MORTGAGES, RISK PROFILES, SAVERS, SAVING BEHAVIOR, SAVINGS, SAVINGS ACCUMULATION, SAVINGS INSTRUMENTS, SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION, SCHOOL-AGE POPULATIONS, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECURITIES, SIGNIFICANT POLICY, SOCIAL AFFAIRS, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, STOCK MARKET, TAX BREAKS, TOTAL SAVINGS, TV, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, WAGE, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WOMAN, WORK HOURS, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNGER COHORTS, YOUNGER PEOPLE