The Middle East War: Shockwaves Across Rice Economies
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International Rice Research Institute
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This brief analyses how the Middle East war is affecting rice economies through disrupted basmati trade, higher energy and freight costs, and rising fertilizer prices. It argues that, because global rice supplies remain ample, an immediate 2023-style price spike in bulk rice is unlikely. Instead, the strongest short-term effects are concentrated in premium rice markets, especially basmati exports from India and Pakistan to Gulf countries. It also highlights that a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could have broader consequences by raising oil, fertilizer, shipping, and insurance costs, thereby increasing production costs for the next crop cycle. The brief concludes that the main policy priority is not emergency panic over rice scarcity, but keeping trade channels open, ensuring fertilizer availability, and monitoring how the energy shock affects future production and food security.
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rice, international trade, basmati rice, price shock, agricultural prices, inflation, agricultural economics, market disruptions