Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Recent National Sample Surveys point to
significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a
marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper
enquires into important aspects of income mobility between
2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to
convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds
into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic
panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be
used to separate out a population subgroup comprising
non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into
poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward
mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle
class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and
2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful
investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds,
prompted by the observation that fairly significant
modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The
findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have
not compromised the comparability of the data.
Palabras clave
LIVING STANDARDS, GROWTH RATES, REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, POINT ESTIMATE, POVERTY LINE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, POVERTY LINE YIELDING, PRO- POOR, INCOME, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, SCHOOLING, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY RATES, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, COUNTRY CASE, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CONSUMPTION DATA, LABOR FORCE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, NATIONAL POVERTY, ESTIMATION RESULTS, ANNUAL GROWTH, CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE, GLOBAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY LINES, HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS, 0 HYPOTHESIS, REGION, NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY DEBATE, MEASURING POVERTY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, POVERTY CHANGE, FIREWOOD, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PER CAPITA GROWTH, POVERTY STATUS, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, CHRONIC POVERTY, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SOCIAL PROTECTION, ECONOMIC REFORMS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, FOOD ITEMS, EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, POVERTY LINES, CONSUMPTION, REDUCING POVERTY, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, URBAN RESIDENCE, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, ERROR TERMS, DENSITY FUNCTION, RURAL POVERTY, URBAN AREAS, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS, RURAL, ERROR TERM, MIDDLE CLASS, LOW-INCOME, TRANSFER PROGRAMS, POVERTY LEVEL, ECONOMICS, EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, INSURANCE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, RURAL RESIDENTS, FOOD SUBSIDIES, POOR POPULATION, REGIONS, GROWTH RATE, VILLAGE LEVEL, RURAL AREAS, POVERTY, VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, URBAN RESIDENTS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, POINT DECLINE, LIVING CONDITIONS, DECLINE IN POVERTY, POVERTY DYNAMICS, MODEL SPECIFICATIONS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, POLICY RESEARCH, POVERTY RATE, POOR, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, PRIMARY EDUCATION, EXCHANGE RATE, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, SELF-EMPLOYMENT, POVERTY ANALYSIS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME GROUPS, INEQUALITY, GROWTH, POOR HOUSEHOLDS