Outlook for Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate
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The theme of my paper is that, provided the terms of trade remain fairly stable, a real exchange rate at about its average 1986-87 level is consistent with a stabilisation of our external debt in 1991; and that the necessary turn-around in our trade balance can occur without requiring a marked slowing down in economic growth. The paper also argues that, if markets accept this view, interest rates will be able to sustain their recent decline.