The Patterns and Determinants of Household Welfare Growth in Jordan : 2002-2010
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Jordan's economic growth in the
past decade has translated into a significant rise in
household consumption and a decline in poverty and
inequality indicators. Yet, the sentiment of the overall
population seems to point to worsening disparities. Using
official household expenditure surveys for 2002, 2008, and
2010, this paper analyzes the patterns and determinants of
household welfare growth and examines the extent to which
economic growth has been inclusive of the more vulnerable
groups. Using counterfactual decompositions, the paper
dwells first on the dynamics observed behind the drop in
poverty and inequality. It then carries out regression
analysis using re-centered influence functions to examine
the economic determinants of household welfare growth
throughout the decade. The paper finds that welfare growth
as opposed to welfare distribution was the main driver
behind poverty reduction, and that the drop in inequality
was primarily driven by a regional catching-up effect. In
addition, the analysis identifies rent, access to human
capital services, and more importantly employment in the
services sector and the public sector as the major
determinants of welfare growth in Jordan. Public hiring in
particular was used extensively as a tool for poverty
alleviation, especially for residents outside the capital.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO EDUCATION, ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE, ACCESS TO SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE RATE, BASE YEAR, BETWEEN-GROUP INEQUALITY, CAPITAL ASSETS, CASH TRANSFERS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION DATA, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION QUINTILES, CONSUMPTION RATES, CORRUPTION, COUNTERFACTUAL, CROWDING OUT, DECLINE IN POVERTY, DECOMPOSITION METHODOLOGY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIMINISHING RETURNS, DOWNWARD BIAS, DROP IN POVERTY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC FACTORS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC SITUATION, ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION, EMPIRICAL FINDINGS, EMPIRICAL MODEL, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EMPLOYMENT CREATION, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, EQUAL DISTRIBUTION, EQUITABLE INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EXCLUSION, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, FAMILIES, FAMILY SERVICES, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD ITEMS, GDP, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, GINI COEFFICIENT, GROWTH COMPONENT, GROWTH EFFECT, GROWTH MODEL, GROWTH PROCESS, GROWTH RATE, HISTORICAL DATA, HOUSEHOLD ACCESS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS, HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME SOURCES, INCREASED INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY CHANGES, INEQUALITY COEFFICIENT, INEQUALITY COMPONENT, INEQUALITY EFFECT, INEQUALITY INDICATORS, INEQUALITY LEVELS, INEQUALITY MEASURES, INEQUALITY TRENDS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY, LABOR FORCE, LACK OF ACCESS, LORENZ CURVE, MEAN CONSUMPTION, MEAN GROWTH, MIDDLE CLASS, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, NATIONAL POVERTY, NEGATIVE CORRELATION, NEGATIVE SLOPE, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POLICY DECISIONS, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY REVIEW, POOR, POOR ECONOMIC GROWTH, POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLD, POSITIVE COEFFICIENT, POSITIVE GROWTH, POSITIVE IMPACT, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY CHANGES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INDEX, POVERTY INDICES, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURE, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY OUTCOMES, POVERTY PROFILE, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, POVERTY SEVERITY, PUBLIC EDUCATION, PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC TRANSFERS, PURE GROWTH, PURE GROWTH EFFECT, REAL ESTATE, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, RECEIPT, REDUCED POVERTY, REDUCING INEQUALITY, REDUCING POVERTY, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REGIONAL BASIS, REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS, REGIONAL DIFFERENCES, REGIONAL DIMENSION, REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES, REGIONAL DISPARITIES, REGIONAL DISPARITY, REGIONAL LEVEL, REGIONAL LEVELS, REGIONAL PATTERN, REGIONAL POVERTY, REGIONAL RESULTS, REGIONAL TRADE, REGIONAL TRENDS, REGIONAL WELFARE, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RESIDUAL COMPONENT, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL GROWTH, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL LEVEL, RURAL POOR, RURAL POVERTY, RURAL REGIONS, RURAL RESIDENTS, SAVINGS, SCALE EFFECT, SCHOOLING, SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, SIDE EFFECTS, SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, URBAN AREAS, URBAN REGIONS, VALUE ADDED, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGES, WELFARE DISTRIBUTION, WELFARE INDICATORS