Evaluating the impact of climate change on water productivity of maize in the semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan

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dc.creatorWaqas, M. M.
dc.creatorShah, S. H. H.
dc.creatorAwan, Usman Khalid
dc.creatorWaseem, M.
dc.creatorAhmad, I.
dc.creatorFahad, M.
dc.creatorNiaz, Y.
dc.creatorAli, S.
dc.date2020-05-11
dc.date2021-01-28T16:00:56Z
dc.date2021-01-28T16:00:56Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T18:27:23Z
dc.descriptionImpact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 C for Tmax and 3.2 C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 C for Tmax and 3.2 C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm-3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm-3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/111032
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/156418
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceWaqas, M. M.; Shah, S. H. H.; Awan, Usman Khalid; Waseem, M.; Ahmad, I.; Fahad, M.; Niaz, Y.; Ali, S. 2020. Evaluating the impact of climate change on water productivity of maize in the semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan. Sustainability, 12(9):3905. (Special issue: Climate Resilient Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093905]
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectimpact assessment
dc.subjectwater productivity
dc.subjectcrop production
dc.subjectmaize
dc.subjectsemiarid zones
dc.subjectsoil hydraulic properties
dc.subjectgroundwater recharge
dc.subjectirrigation systems
dc.subjectprecipitation
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectrain
dc.subjectmodels
dc.titleEvaluating the impact of climate change on water productivity of maize in the semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan
dc.typeJournal Article

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