Aid, Service Delivery, and the Millennium Development Goals in an Economy-wide Framework
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In many developing countries, achieving
the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 will require
significant increases in expenditures on social services and
in foreign assistance. It will also require careful planning
of the sector allocation and sequencing of public spending.
Especially for low-income countries, the challenges of the
MDGs cannot be well understood unless sector issues are seen
in the context of constraints at the macro level and in
labor markets. To help countries analyze policies aimed at
making progress toward the goals, the World Bank has
developed a new tool, the Maquette for MDG Simulations
(MAMS). Its originality is to fully integrate government
services and their impact on the economy within an otherwise
standard economy-wide dynamic framework. In comparison with
existing approaches, MAMS offers three main advantages.
First, the representation of the production of government
services - such as health or education - takes into account
demand as well as supply factors and the efficiency of these
services. It also allows for interactions across the goals,
and between the goals and economic growth. Second, it shows
how scaling up these services has economy-wide impacts that
may change resource allocation in the non-government sector
and relative prices, including the unit cost of government
services. Third, it shows the tradeoffs across time,
including the relative costs and benefits, of front-loading
expenditures versus back-loading. The present paper
describes the basic features of MAMS and provides an
illustration of its applicability for Ethiopia.
Palabras clave
ABSENTEEISM, ACCOUNTING, AVERAGE WAGE, BABIES, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BORROWING, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL GROWTH, CAPITAL REQUIREMENT, CENTER FOR POPULATION, CENTRAL BANK, COMPETITIVENESS, CONTRIBUTIONS, COST ANALYSIS, CURRENT EXPENDITURES, DEBT, DEBT FORGIVENESS, DEFICITS, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISEASES, DRINKING WATER, DROPOUT, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC SHOCK, EDUCATED GROUPS, EDUCATIONAL SERVICES, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMPLOYMENT, EQUATIONS, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUILIBRIUM MODELS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXERCISES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FORMAL EDUCATION, FUNCTIONAL FORMS, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH ECONOMICS, HEALTH INSURANCE, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH RISKS, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH SPENDING, HOSPITAL, HOSPITAL BEDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT OF EDUCATION, IMPACT ON CHILDREN, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INVESTING, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR SUPPLY, LACK OF INFORMATION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LITERACY, LIVE BIRTHS, LOW INCOME, LOW-INCOME, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO, MIGRANTS, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MORTALITY RATE, NATIONAL POLICIES, NEEDS ASSESSMENT, NUMBER OF PEOPLE, NURSES, OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, PENSION, PENSION SYSTEMS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, PREGNANT WOMEN, PRESENT VALUE, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROGRESS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SERVICES, PURCHASES, PURCHASING POWER, QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE, RAPID GROWTH, RATES OF GROWTH, REAL GDP, RELEVANT POPULATION, RENTS, RESEARCH EFFORTS, RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS, RESEARCH PROGRAM, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS, RESPECT, RESPONSIBILITIES, RETURNS TO SCALE, SAFE WATER, SANITATION, SAVINGS, SCARCE RESOURCES, SCHOOL QUALITY, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE PROVISION, SKILLED WORKERS, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL SERVICES, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUSTAINABLE ACCESS, TAX COLLECTION, TAX RATES, TEACHER TRAINING, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TOTAL COSTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, TOTAL SAVINGS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, URBANIZATION, VALUABLE, WAGE, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WATER SUPPLY