When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture

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dc.creatorFishman, Ram
dc.creatorJain, Meha
dc.creatorKishore, Avinash
dc.date2026-02
dc.date2025-10-14T18:03:45Z
dc.date2025-10-14T18:03:45Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:04:38Z
dc.descriptionIncreasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 villages in Gujarat, India, to provide novel evidence on this question. The analysis reveals that greater water scarcity leads to widespread declines in irrigated agriculture and enhanced migration to cities, but only among dominant socio-economic groups. No evidence is found of substantial compensating investments in water-efficient technologies or in human capital, despite farmers having long been aware of the decline in water levels.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/177088
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/93818
dc.languageen
dc.publisherOxford University Press
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceFishman, Ram; Jain, Meha; and Kishore, Avinash. 2026. When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture. World Bank Economic Review 40(1): 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhaf012
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectgroundwater depletion
dc.subjectirrigation
dc.subjectmigration
dc.subjectwater scarcity
dc.subjectsmallholders
dc.titleWhen water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)