How Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market?

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dc.creatorLópez-Córdova, J. Ernesto
dc.creatorMicco, Alejandro
dc.creatorMolina, Danielken
dc.date2012-05-24T19:19:13Z
dc.date2012-05-24T19:19:13Z
dc.date2008-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:23:49Z
dc.descriptionThis paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. The analysis considers the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United States by a fifth, although since other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent. Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent), but Latin America would see its share of the U.S. market decline by around 2 percent (2.5 percentage points). China's gains would come mainly at the expense of other regions of the world.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/8973089/sensitive-latin-american-exports-chinese-competition-market
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/6378
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-4497
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/417711
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4497
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectAGGREGATE TRADE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectAPPAREL
dc.subjectAPPAREL EXPORTS
dc.subjectAPPAREL GOODS
dc.subjectAPPAREL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFF
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFFS
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectBUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectCAPITAL REQUIREMENT
dc.subjectCAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL SHARE
dc.subjectCENTRAL AMERICA
dc.subjectCENTRAL AMERICAN
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectDEMAND ELASTICITY
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR GOODS
dc.subjectDEMAND FUNCTION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subjectECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectELIMINATION OF TARIFFS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT DYNAMISM
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFACTOR PRICES
dc.subjectFAIR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AREA
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGRAVITY FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectIMPORT DATA
dc.subjectIMPORT QUOTA
dc.subjectIMPORT QUOTAS
dc.subjectIMPORT SHARE
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectIMPORT VALUE
dc.subjectINPUT PRICES
dc.subjectINSTRUMENT
dc.subjectINTERMEDIATE GOODS
dc.subjectINTERMEDIATE INPUTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION
dc.subjectLATIN AMERICAN
dc.subjectLOW TARIFFS
dc.subjectMARGINAL COSTS
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMARKET SHARES
dc.subjectMETAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL ACCESS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TARIFF
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE EFFECT
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectPRICE OF IMPORTS
dc.subjectPRICE TRENDS
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICE
dc.subjectQUOTAS
dc.subjectREGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSOUTH AMERICA
dc.subjectSOUTH AMERICAN
dc.subjectSUPPLIER
dc.subjectTARIFF ELIMINATION
dc.subjectTARIFF EQUIVALENT
dc.subjectTARIFF LINE
dc.subjectTARIFF LINES
dc.subjectTARIFF PREFERENCES
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTION
dc.subjectTEXTILE IMPORTS
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE DATA
dc.subjectTRADE IMPEDIMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE PARTNER
dc.subjectTRADE PATTERNS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRANSPORT COSTS
dc.subjectURUGUAY ROUND
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectVALUE OF EXPORTS
dc.subjectVALUE OF IMPORTS
dc.subjectVOLUME OF TRADE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.titleHow Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market?

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