Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorGlauber, Joseph W.
dc.date2023-07-11
dc.date2024-03-14T12:08:52Z
dc.date2024-03-14T12:08:52Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:27:31Z
dc.descriptionThe Russia-Ukraine war has caused significant price volatility in agricultural markets over the past year — for wheat, in particular, price levels and price volatility reached the highest levels since the 2007/08 marketing year. Both have fallen back to pre-war levels over the past six months, but volatility remains high relative to historical levels (Figure 1), indicating that significant market uncertainty remains, creating ongoing vulnerability for global food security. Before 2022, volatility (measured by the implied volatility in the wheat futures market) spiked and remained high three times since 2006 — in 2007/08 and then again in 2010/11 and 2012/13 (as indicated in the gray bands in the figure). Markets then remained relatively quiet until the recent spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. High volatility persists due to market uncertainty over the war and the relative tightness in stock levels, which provide little cushion against unforeseen production shortfalls.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/140063
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/104991
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394
dc.relationhttps://www.ifpri.org/blog/assessing-tight-global-wheat-stocks-and-their-role-price-volatility
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceGlauber, Joseph W. 2023. Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility. In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security, eds. Joseph Glauber and David Laborde Debucquet. Section One: A Conflict with Global Consequences, Chapter 10, Pp. 52-56. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_10.
dc.subjectproduction
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjectpolicies
dc.subjectwar
dc.subjectcoronavirus
dc.subjectcovid-19
dc.subjectsupply
dc.subjectstocks
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectmarkets
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectcoronavirinae
dc.subjectrussia
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectukraine
dc.subjectconflicts
dc.subjectcoronavirus disease
dc.subjectwheat
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleAssessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility
dc.typeBook Chapter

Archivos

Colecciones

Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)