Afghanistan Development Update, July 2020
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The global COVID-19 crisis has compounded the daunting challenges currently
facing Afghanistan. Afghanistan has officially recorded 31,238 cases and 733 deaths
as of end-June, with actual cases and fatalities expected to be far higher. The number
of cases is increasing rapidly, with no sign that the pandemic is under control. With
major disruptions to domestic economic activity, regional trade, and remittance
flows, the economy is now contracting rapidly. With declining incomes and
increasing food prices, hardship is increasing, with the poverty rate expected to
increase to up to 72 percent over 2020. Due to reduced trade, administrative
disruptions, and declining economic output, government revenues fell by more than
a third below target levels in May, placing major pressure on government finances. COVID-19 has hit Afghanistan in the midst of a difficult political transition, an
intensifying conflict, and significant uncertainty regarding future grant support.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, FISCAL TRENDS, MONETARY POLICY, TRADE DEFICIT, POVERTY REDUCTION, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, VALUE ADDED TAX, TAX REVENUE, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT