Evidence-based Policy for Controlling HPAI in Poultry: Bio-security Revisited
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There is considerable global concern over the newly emergent H5N1 strain of avian influenza that has affected millions of domestic poultry flocks and resulted in 256 human cases and 152 deaths in humans. There has been little analysis of the general assumption that smallholder backyard poultry flocks are inherently at higher risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) than confined and commercial scale operations. We utilized data from Thailand, collected in 2004, to test the relative risks of HPAI infection in poultry flocks, by species, type of operation, and geographic location. The results indicate that backyard flocks are at significantly lower risk of HPAI infection compared to commercial scale operations of broiler or layer chickens or quail. These results are plausible in terms of the opportunities for breach of bio-security in commercial scale operations.