Malawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

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dc.creatorMukashov, Askar
dc.creatorDuchoslav, Jan
dc.creatorKankwamba, Henry
dc.creatorJones, Eleanor
dc.creatorThurlow, James
dc.date2024-12-20
dc.date2024-12-20T18:22:55Z
dc.date2024-12-20T18:22:55Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:27:07Z
dc.descriptionThis study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and ma-chine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings sug-gest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including production volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/104786
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceMukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjecteconomic shock
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectmarket prices
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectnutrition
dc.subjectcrop yield
dc.subjectmachine learning
dc.subjectclimate
dc.titleMalawi: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
dc.typeBrief

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)