Lao PDR Economic Monitor, May 2010
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Washington, DC
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Real gross domestic product (GDP)
growth, which was estimated at 7 percent in 2009, is
expected to increase to 7.8 percent in 2010 driven largely
by resource sectors. Out of this growth of 7.8 percent,
around 3.3 percentage points comes from power sector (mainly
NT2 - nearly 3 percentage points), 0.9 percentage points
from agriculture, around 0.4 percentage points for each of
mining and construction, 0.8 percentage points from
manufacturing and about 1.7 percentage points from services
sector (tourism and retail trade, financial sector services
as a result of the recent sharp increases in bank lending,
and transport and telecommunication services). Real gross
national income (GNI) is expected to slow to nearly 6
percent this year compared to 9.5 percent in 2009 due to
significant outflows of income (profit repatriation and
interest payment) from resources sectors (mining and
hydropower). Although international reserves remained fairly
stable during the last six months, net foreign assets
dropped by 25 percent. Gross official Reserves at the Bank
of Lao PDR were estimated at about $635 million during Oct
2009-Mar 2010 of which $65 million can be attributed to an
increase in the International Monetary Fund's
(IMF's) SDR allocation in late 2009 and $63 million
have been borrowed from domestic banks through sales of
foreign currency denominated bonds by the Bank of Lao (BoL).
Net foreign assets declined by 25 percent in 2009 and 23
percent in Mar 2010 due to rapid credit expansion and import
growth. The current account deficit is projected to decline
from 10.6 percent of GDP in 2009 to 7.7 percent in 2010
supported by strong export growth, and in particular NT2
exports of electricity to Thailand. The capital account
surplus is expected to decrease slightly from 10.6 percent
of GDP in 2009 to 10.1 percent this year although FDI
started to rebound. The overall balance is likely to turn
into surplus in 2010 to about 2.4 percent of GDP. Credit
grew rapidly in 2009 and in the first quarter of 2010 but is
expected to slow by end?2010. Credits grew by about 90
percent last year and during Jan-Mar 2010 partly due to
BOL's direct lending to local projects to finance
public infrastructure and associated imports (about 22
percentage points of total credit growth). As the Government
of Lao (GOL) made a decision to stop quasi?fiscal activities
in September 2009 and bank liquidity tightened (loan to
deposit ratio increased significantly to 73 percent by
end-2009 from 55 percent in 2008), credit growth is expected
to slow in 2010.
Palabras clave
ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK CREDIT, BANK CREDITS, BANK LENDING, BANK LIQUIDITY, BANK OFFICE, BANK SUPERVISION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SERVICES, BANKING SYSTEM, BONDS, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUSINESS PERFORMANCE, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL GOODS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER GOODS, CORE INFLATION, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT GROWTH, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT STOCK, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT INTEREST, DEPOSIT INTEREST RATE, DEPOSIT RATE, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DOMESTIC BANKS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEBT, DURABLE, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE POLICY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL BALANCE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN ASSETS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GDP DEFLATOR, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BOND, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GROWTH RATE, HOLDINGS, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORTS, INCOME, INFLATION, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INTEREST PAYMENT, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE SPREAD, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVE, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOAN REPAYMENT, LONG-TERM INTEREST, LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE, M2, MATURITY, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL COMMODITIES, OIL PRICE, OUTPUT, PEG, PRIVATE HOUSING, PROJECT GRANTS, PUBLIC CONFIDENCE, PUBLIC DEBT, RAPID CREDIT EXPANSION, RAPID EXPANSION, REAL GDP, REAL LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE, RESERVE, RESERVES, SLOWDOWN, STOCK MARKETS, SURPLUS, SWAP, TAX, TOTAL CREDIT, TOTAL DEPOSITS, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADE VOLUME, TRADING, TRANSPORT, UNCERTAINTY, WAGES, WORLD TRADE