Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices :  The Case of Ghana

Tsimpo, Clarence; Wodon, Quentin; Coulombe, Harold

Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices : The Case of Ghana

Autores

Tsimpo, Clarence

Wodon, Quentin

Coulombe, Harold

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers (who benefit from an increase in prices) and food consumers (who loose out when the price increases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. In Ghana, the impact of a change in the price of rice is not ambiguous because a large share of the rice consumed is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is much larger than the positive impact for producers. For maize by contrast, the impact is ambiguous since much of the consumption is locally produced. Using a recent and comprehensive household survey, this paper provides an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in Ghana using both simple statistical analysis and non-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising food prices for rice, maize, and other cereals would together lead to an increase in poverty, but that by contrast to a number of other countries, this increase, while not negligible, may not be as large as feared.

Palabras clave

ABSOLUTE TERMS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL WAGE, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, BREAD, BULLETIN, CEREAL PRICES, CEREALS, COMPENSATORY MEASURES, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE, CONSUMPTION BASKET, COST OF FOOD, CULTURAL CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIET, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, FARMERS, FLOUR, FOOD CONSUMERS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CROPS, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRICING, FOOD PRODUCERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUBSIDIES, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCREASE POVERTY, INEQUALITY, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MAIZE, MINORITY, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATIONAL POVERTY, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NET INCOME, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLD, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PRODUCERS, POORER HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCREASES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY REDUCING, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, PRODUCTION SIDE, PROGRESS, PURCHASING POWER, REDUCING POVERTY, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL HEADCOUNT, RURAL HEADCOUNT INDEX, RURAL WELFARE, SAFETY NET, SHORT-TERM IMPACT, SQUARED POVERTY GAP, STAPLE FOODS, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, URBAN AREAS, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS