The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis

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dc.creatorCororaton, Caesar B.
dc.creatorKnight, David
dc.date2014-10-06T20:27:57Z
dc.date2014-10-06T20:27:57Z
dc.date2014-09
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:54:14Z
dc.descriptionThis paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20233073/impact-exogenous-shocks-households-pacific-micro-simulation-analysis
dc.identifierCororaton, Caesar B.; Knight, David S.. 2014. The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7046. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20371 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20371
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-7046
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412718
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; 7046
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectABSOLUTE POVERTY
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRICE
dc.subjectBASIC FOODS
dc.subjectBASIC NEEDS
dc.subjectBEEF
dc.subjectBREAD
dc.subjectCASH CROP INCOME
dc.subjectCASH CROPS
dc.subjectCASH-CROP
dc.subjectCASSAVA
dc.subjectCOCOA
dc.subjectCOCOA PRICE
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRICE
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRICES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVE MARKETS
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICES
dc.subjectCOOKING
dc.subjectCOPRA PRICE
dc.subjectCOPRA PRICES
dc.subjectCOST OF LIVING
dc.subjectCOST OF TRANSPORT
dc.subjectCRUDE OIL PRICE
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXCISE TAX
dc.subjectEXISTING GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPOSURE
dc.subjectEXPOSURE TO RISKS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFATS
dc.subjectFEEDS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DERIVATIVES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFIXED ASSET
dc.subjectFOOD COMMODITIES
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFOOD IMPORTS
dc.subjectFOOD ITEMS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD RESOURCES
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD STAPLES
dc.subjectFOOD TRANSPORT
dc.subjectFOODSTUFF
dc.subjectFREIGHT
dc.subjectFREIGHT COSTS
dc.subjectFRUIT
dc.subjectFRUITS
dc.subjectFUEL
dc.subjectFUEL COSTS
dc.subjectFUEL PRICE
dc.subjectFUEL PRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectFUEL PRICES
dc.subjectFUTURE PRICES
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHIGH TRANSPORTATION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectIDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectIMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME RISK
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFORMATION SERVICES
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINSURANCE POLICIES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CRUDE OIL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKET
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectLACK OF INFORMATION
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMEAT
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONOPOLIES
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY LINES
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectPALM OIL
dc.subjectPEAK INFLATION
dc.subjectPETROLEUM PRODUCTS
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectPOTATO
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY INDICATORS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY SEVERITY
dc.subjectPRICE BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGE
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE CONTROLS
dc.subjectPRICE DECREASE
dc.subjectPRICE FLOOR
dc.subjectPRICE INCENTIVES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASE
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE RISK
dc.subjectPRICE TREND
dc.subjectPRICE TRENDS
dc.subjectPRICE VARIATION
dc.subjectPRICE VARIATIONS
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRIVATE TRANSFERS
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICE
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICES
dc.subjectPROFIT MARGINS
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSPORT
dc.subjectPURCHASING
dc.subjectREMOTE LOCATION
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRISK REDUCTION
dc.subjectROAD
dc.subjectROAD CONNECTIONS
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLD
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectRURAL POOR
dc.subjectRURAL POPULATIONS
dc.subjectSAGO
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSMALL BUSINESSES
dc.subjectSMALL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSTAPLE FOODS
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSUGAR
dc.subjectSUPPLIERS
dc.subjectSUPPLY ELASTICITY
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectTRANSPORT COSTS
dc.subjectTRANSPORT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectTRANSPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION COST
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION COSTS
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectTRUE
dc.subjectVEGETABLES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectYAM
dc.titleThe Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis

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