Thailand Economic Monitor, November 2010
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Washington, DC
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Growth has slowed down since the second
quarter, but exceeded expectations. Considering the 1)
political turmoil; 2) robust growth during the rebound; and
3) slowdown in advanced economies, the Thai economy was
expected to contract by more than it did in the second and
third quarters. The output of the manufacturing sector
expanded in the second quarter, led by still-growing exports
and robust private consumption. Demand indeed appears to
have been higher than production, as some orders had to be
filled by drawing down on inventories. However, a sharp
contraction in tourism led Gross Domestic product (GDP)
overall to contract in the quarter. The FY10 fiscal deficit
was much smaller than initially feared when the budget was
proposed. The budget for FY10 was prepared at the trough of
the global financial crisis in February 2009 and anticipated
only 1.35 trillion baht in revenues. Inflation levels have
been low and stable but persistent increases in food prices
could pose risks. Overall, slower growth in advanced
economies will translate into lower GDP growth Thailand for
the next two to three years. Notwithstanding a deceleration
in the second half because of the waning global inventory
cycle, year-on-year growth in 2010 is expected at 7.5
percent due to the low base of 2009 and the strong first
half. Quarter-to-quarter growth will pick up modestly in
2011 to average over 4 percent, but the relatively high base
in 2010 results in a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2 percent
for 2011.
Palabras clave
ADVANCED ECONOMIES, ADVANCED ECONOMY, AGRICULTURE, ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT, ASSET PRICE, ASSETS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEETS, BANK LOAN, BANK OFFICE, BANK SECURITIES, BANKRUPTCY, BILL, BOND, BOND MARKET, BOND MARKETS, BONDS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSENSUS FORECASTS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORE INFLATION, CREDIT BUREAU, CREDIT INFORMATION SYSTEMS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY APPRECIATION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEBT, DEFICITS, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITORY, DEPRECIATION, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DIVERSIFICATION BENEFITS, DOMESTIC BOND, DOMESTIC BOND MARKETS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC MARKET, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUITY PRICES, EXCESS CAPACITY, EXCHANGE BANK, EXCHANGE COMMISSION, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSION OF WORLD TRADE, EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL ASSETS, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN ASSETS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, FOREIGN PORTFOLIO, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS, FUTURES, FUTURES EXCHANGE, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL LIQUIDITY, GOLD, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, IMPORT, IMPORT CONTENT, IMPORT DEMAND, IMPORTS, IMPORTS GOODS, INCOME, INCOMES, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION TARGET, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL, INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS, INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, LABOR FORCE, LEADING INDICATORS, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL CONTENT, LOW INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET SHARE, MARKET SHARES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES, NEW PRODUCTS, OIL COMMODITIES, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OUTPUT, PENSIONS, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL TURMOIL, PORTFOLIO FLOWS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INFLATION, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, PRIMARY MARKET, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, QUOTAS, RANGE OF CURRENCIES, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, RECESSION, REGIONAL MARKETS, REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SECURITIES, SLACK, SLOW GROWTH, SLOWDOWN, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL PROTECTION, STOCK EXCHANGE, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, STRUCTURAL REFORM, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TARIFF REDUCTION, TAX, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL INVESTMENT, TRADABLE GOODS, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE REGIME, TRADE STATISTICS, TRADING PARTNERS, TRADING VOLUMES, TRADITIONAL MARKETS, TRANSPORTATION COSTS, TROUGH, TURBULENT PERIOD, UNCERTAINTIES, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUE INDEX, VENTURE CAPITAL, VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, WAGES, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO