Distributional Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion
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This paper uses a dynamic macro-micro
framework to evaluate the potential distributional effects
of the expansion of the Panama Canal. The results show that
large macroeconomic effects are only likely during the
operations phase (2014 and onward), and income gains are
likely to be concentrated at the top of the income
distribution. The additional foreign exchange inflows during
the construction and operations phases result in the loss of
competitiveness of non-Canal sectors (Dutch disease) and in
higher domestic prices, which hurt the poorest consumers. In
addition, the construction and operation activities increase
demand for more educated non-farm formal workers. Although
these changes encourage additional labor movement out of
agriculture and from the informal to the formal sector, much
of the impact is manifested in growing wage disparities and
widening income inequality. Using the additional revenues of
the Canal expansion in a targeted cash transfer program such
as "Red de Oportunidades", the Government of
Panama could offset the adverse distributional effects and
eradicate extreme poverty.
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ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE WAGE, AVERAGE WAGES, BASE YEAR, BORROWING, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL RETURNS, CAPITAL STOCK, CD, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMPETITIVE LABOR MARKETS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMERS, CORPORATE TAX, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, DEBT, DEMAND CURVE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC PRICES, DUAL ECONOMY, EARNING, ECONOMIC BOOM, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMICS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL SERVICES, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMPLOYMENT EFFECT, EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS, EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, EQUILIBRIUM, ESTIMATED PARAMETER, EXCHANGE RATE, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPECTED WAGE, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT SECTORS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL COMPETITIVENESS, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTOR MARKETS, FACTOR PRICE, FACTOR PRICES, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN FIRMS, FORMAL SECTOR WAGES, FORMAL SECTOR WORKERS, FULL EMPLOYMENT, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME EFFECT, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME TAX, INFORMAL SECTOR, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, JOB CREATION, JOBS, LABOR ALLOCATION, LABOR COSTS, LABOR DEMAND, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOBILITY, LABOR MOVEMENT, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, LABOR REALLOCATION, LABOR SUPPLY, LABOUR, LIVING STANDARDS, MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SEGMENT, MARKET SEGMENTS, MARKET SUPPLY, MINIMUM WAGE, MONOPOLY, MULTIPLIER EFFECT, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NET EMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATIONS, PENSIONS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PERFECT COMPETITION, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, PREVIOUS SECTION, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, PRICE INFLATION, PRIMARY SOURCE, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRODUCER PRICE, PRODUCTION OUTPUT, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICES, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, RATE OF RETURN, RATE OF RETURN TO CAPITAL, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, REAL WAGES, RENTS, RISK AVERSION, RISK-AVERSE INDIVIDUALS, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, RURAL LABOR, RURAL POVERTY, SALES, SAVINGS, SERVICE SECTORS, SKILL PREMIUM, SKILLED WAGE PREMIUM, SKILLED WORKERS, SMALL COUNTRY, SPREAD, SUBSTITUTE, TAX, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL OUTPUT, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYED WORKERS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URBANIZATION, UTILITY FUNCTION, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGE EFFECTS, WAGE GAP, WAGE GROWTH, WAGE LEVELS, WAGE RATE, WAGE SUBSIDY, WAGES, WORKER, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION